When last these teams met just three weeks ago, they collaborated for only 26 points, all but three by New England. Buffalo’s other three outings in the past month produced 26, 20 (in overtime) and 40 points. The Patriots are not in the same ballpark for low scores, but they have stayed Under in eight of the 10 latest games. Buffalo has gone below the total in five of seven roadies. Inherent in the public backing of New England ATS because of the lopsided series record is an expectation that QB Tom Brady will go off. No, not against this defense. Meanwhile, the Bills will pound RB LeSean McCoy against a so-so rush defense and keep the clock ticking down to an Under.

As I mentioned in my moneyline writeup, I can see the hungry Bills winning outright. So I'm definitely playing them on the spread too.

The Buffalo Bills have a chance to end the longest current playoff drought in the NFL. They'll need to knock off their division rivals in order to keep that ever-so-close dream alive. What has been impressive over the last few weeks is that they've actually tightened up defensively. Also, the last time they met the Pats, TE Rob Gronkowski delivered a vicious personal foul against rookie CB Tre'Davious White that ended up getting Gronk suspended. Don't think the Bills players forgot about that. They'll treat this game as their Super Bowl and could win outright. Back Buffalo at this monster payback.