Lost out on the value here by waiting, but the loss to Washington last week does not give me any pause with New Orleans. Carolina's defense is tough, but the Saints are no slouches on that side of the ball and have found another level to their offense with dynamic Alvin Kamara toting the rock. Even if the Saints struggle early, they will figure it out down the stretch of the game and cover a touchdown.

The Saints have dropped two in a row ATS and lost last week on the heels of an eight-game win streak. Keep in mind that they outgained Washington and hung with the white-hot Rams. No team gains more yardage per snap than the Saints. Panthers QB Cameron Newton endured a nightmare in Charlotte with his second-worst passer rating ever when the Saints breezed by three TDs. And CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, who missed the Rams’ game with injuries, are expected back.

The Panthers have been winning games, but the offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders outside of a total domination of the Dolphins' awful unit. They might be able to run the ball on the Saints, but that defense has clamped down against the run in recent matchups. I like the Saints defense to bounce back with both of their injured corners practicing this week, and I'm not sure the Panthers can slow down an offense that's first in net yards per attempt and first in yards per rush and is playing at home. The Saints are the much better team overall, so I'm willing to lay a relatively small number.

The Saints' eight-game win streak came to a halt at Los Angeles, and while their offense is diverse with a pair of RBs tearing it up, I wasn't overly impressed with their streak because it came against mostly struggling teams. The best team they faced was the Panthers to start the streak, but Carolina wasn't playing well at the time. Neither were the Bills, Bucs, Bears, Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Detroit and Miami. The Redskins should have beaten New Orleans two weeks ago as well. The Panthers are playing their best right now, winning and covering their last four. The defense has been stellar. Also, for what ever reason, Cam Newton loves playing in the Superdome. His last three visits have seen him put up 38, 41 and 41. Look for Newton to shine again here.

The Saints have covered five straight against the Panthers, and we're getting value in the line based on two fluky Carolina TDs late last week at the Jets. New Orleans leads the NFL in yards per play and will put up enough points here to cover.

The Saints have cleared the Over in 13 of the past 19 home dates, with one push. Regardless of the venue, meetings with the Panthers also produce Overs, with five of the last six vaulting over the total. Still, this number is high in view of Carolina’s top-class defense (ranked No. 2) and middling offense (No. 16). The Panthers’ 35-point outburst last Sunday is misleading; one touchdown was scored by the defense, another by the special teams. A recent three-game stretch by Carolina generated 20, 20 and 37 points. On the flip side, New Orleans has upgraded its own defense after years of getting shredded. It ranks 15th. No doubt that Drew Brees is scary good under his familiar roof. And while 48 is lower than the wacky total of 54 for the Saints last Sunday at the Rams, these teams should limbo under it.