While the Bucs have covered five straight and the Cowboys have failed to cover their last three, I'll back the NFC's top seed in a bounceback situation at home. Tampa Bay has given up 4.5 yards per carry the past seven games -- a good omen for Ezekiel Elliott. His success should enable Dak Prescott to thrive once again after the rookie QB's season-worst performance at the Giants. Lay the points.

A year ago at home, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston had one of his worst performances in a 10-6 win against Dallas. Keep in mind this Bucs team has traveled to KC and San Diego, and played two tough home games against the Seahawks and Saints over the last month. Dallas has benefitted from consecutive Thursday games followed by a divisional game on the road. Look for Tampa's season to fizzle out, starting Sunday night.

The Cowboys just played two primetime games that featured little scoring, and I think this will be in that same vein. The Bucs have given up 10, 17, 5, 21, and 11 points in their last five games against a better than average slate of offensive teams (Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers and Saints in their last four) . Tampa Bay has also failed to score 20 points in three of their last four games.

The Cowboys struggled last week versus the Giants and face a young, aggressive version of themselves this week in Tampa Bay. The Cowboys' run game should enable them to prevail, but the Bucs' defense has been stingy lately and will help keep this one close. Take the points.

I wish I was able to get this number around +8 where it opened, but there is still plenty of value at +7. Tampa is on a roll on both sides of the ball and I expect their defense to give Prescott trouble at times. I have Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites, making the Bucs a great value at +7. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Cowboys lose back-to-back games the way Jamies Winston and the Bucs are playing right now.

The Bucs have covered five straight during their recent hot stretch while playing excellent defense. The Cowboys have failed to cover in three straight and have seen the offense falter in their last two. Jameis Winston should be able to have success through the air, which helps if the Bucs are in a spot where they need a late score to cover. The Bucs are also tied for the league lead in takeaways, with the defense generating multiple turnovers in each of their last five. The Cowboys have given the ball away five times in their last two. I think the Cowboys still win, but I expect it to be a close game.

I missed out with the +8.5 on the Bucs at Dallas, but numbers are still telling me -6 is the right line as the Buccaneers' rating keeps climbing and the Cowboys number has peaked. After nine straight covers, the Cowboys haven't covered in the past three weeks. Dak Prescott just experienced his worst game and hasn't topped 200 yards passing during the non-cover stretch. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has put it all together and rides a five game win and cover streak, and they're still rated too low. This could be the upset of the week with a defense playing, perhaps, the best in the league right now.