Fantasy Football 2022 Sleepers: One late-round target from every NFL team for your draft prep

Identifying undervalued sleepers heading into Fantasy drafts can be the difference between winning your league or going home with nothing. So before you draft this season, you'll want to see the late-round sleepers from SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs.

Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now Gibbs has released his deep sleepers for 2022, exclusively to SportsLine members. We can tell you he loves Indianapolis Colts receiver Parris Campbell. Gibbs also is expecting big things from Year 2 Texans wideout Nico Collins. "He [Collins] feels like such a logical late-round dart throw," Gibbs says. "Houston's 2021 third-round selection had decent-enough rookie rates, even while dealing with shoulder, foot, and hip injuries. He had nearly identical per-route rates to Rashod Bateman, and unlike Bateman (whom I remain excited for going forward!), we actually saw progression from Collins as his rookie season moved along."

Gibbs has 30 more deep sleepers, one for every team, and you need to see them before you draft. He also reveals a SUPER-SLEEPER TIGHT END that everyone is overlooking in 2022 drafts! 

Which late-round sleepers are poised to greatly outproduce their current draft stock? And which running back could emerge as a top-10 Fantasy RB if the starter in his backfield misses time? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs's 2022 late-round sleepers, plus get the entire Fantasy Football Draft Bible for 2022, all from the nation's eighth-most accurate analyst!

My task is to find a player from each NFL team that is capable of returning Fantasy-relevant results in 2022 but also is not already on the radar of most Fantasy drafters. We're not talking about obvious breakout candidates like Elijah Moore or Gabriel Davis here. Even more hip sleeper picks like James Cook and Rondale Moore are too mainstream for this ultra-niche and ultra-pretentious article.

Deep cuts only today! Some of these deep sleepers are worthy of later-round draft fliers, but most are players who may become viable waiver wire pickups at some point during the season. Keep these names in mind so you can stay ahead of the competition and make savvy free agent moves when Fantasy landscape-altering news inevitably breaks over the next few months. Enjoy -- one deep sleeper candidate for all 32 NFL teams.

Updated 9/2

Arizona Cardinals

As mentioned already, Rondale Moore is the real sleeper for the Cardinals. We already know what we have in James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and A.J. Green. Eno Benjamin could have been a fun deep sleeper pick, but Arizona complicated things by adding Darrel Williams. As a result, finding a deep Cardinal who could awaken to Fantasy relevancy at some point during the 2022 season is tough.

Rookie tight end Trey McBride feels like the most slept-on Cardinal with a path to a Fantasy-relevant role. A second-round selection with stellar receiving CFB data, McBride profiles as a potential Fantasy difference-maker if he can earn regular opportunities.

McBride should have a chance to find the field with semi-regularity as Arizona searches for competent playmakers with Hopkins sidelined for the first six games. And if Ertz is forced to miss time with injury at any point during his 10th pro season, McBride could fill a featured role as a short and intermediate target.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's RB room is one of the thinnest in the NFL, and Tyler Allgeier profiles as the second-best statistical pure rusher in the 2022 rookie class, behind only Kenneth Walker. The fifth-round selection isn't likely to ever fill a three-down role, but he could account for 60-70% of Atlanta's early down and short-yardage work if he's as good in that role as his CFB data indicates. There aren't many running backs with a clear path to playing time that are being selected as late as Allgeier.

Baltimore Ravens

Update: Isaiah Likely balled out this preseason and is a name to be aware of on a Ravens team lacking proven playmaking pass-catchers behind Mark Andrews.

Among players with at least 30 preseason routes run, Isaiah Likely drew targets at the highest rate in the NFL.

Likely was a stud at the collegiate level, too.

Of course, Mark Andrews stands in Likely's way entering the 2022 season. But, the upside is clearly apparent if there's ever a scenario in which Likely finds himself with regular reps available to him.

Buffalo Bills

Isaiah McKenzie is the slot receiver getting all of the attention in Fantasy circles at the moment, and he is a decent late-round flier. Don't count out rookie fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, though.

Shakir's name kept popping up during the research that I did on the 2022 class. I dug into the route-specific data for the 2022 rookie WR class to gain a better understanding of which players ran NFL-level routes in college and if they found success when running such routes -- all of that research is recorded in this article.

On the "Big Four" routes that are utilized the most frequently by NFL offenses, Shakir had the second-highest target per route run rate and the third-highest yard per route run rate. He did have a high scripted touch route frequency but certainly wasn't reliant on it -- on non-scripted touch routes, Shakir ranked first in TPRR and YPRR rate.

The path to a regular role is pretty muddled at this point, so Shakir isn't someone who you should be drafting outside of leagues with very deep benches. But he is an explosive playmaker on what could easily be the most Fantasy-friendly passing offense in the NFL.

Carolina Panthers

Update: The Panthers traded for Laviska Shenault, who will presumably fill a catch-and-run role from the slot for a team devoid of playmakers outside of D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

The rookie year data for Laviska Shenault was really encouraging. Year 2 could not have gone much worse. Urban Meyer was his coach, the Jaguars were the most dysfunctional offense in the NFL, and Shenault was thrust into a downfield-oriented route tree from the perimeter when D.J. Chark was lost for the season.

Shenault is a clear-cut catch-and-run weapon who should be utilized on short routes -- this fact is backed by his data at both the NFL and collegiate level. He could regain Fantasy relevancy if occupying this type of role for the Panthers.

Chicago Bears

Sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner doesn't have a clearly defined role but is a playmaker in an offense that desperately needs one.

Baylor used Ebner as more of a positionless weapon than a running back. At 215 pounds, he isn't the undersized type of player we typically find in a gadget type of role. But at no point in his career did he command more than 35% of Baylor's RB rushing attempts, and Ebner's efficiency on his limited short-yardage opportunities was by far the worst among the 2022 rookie class.

Film analysis often notes Ebner as an indecisive runner, and his rushing metrics back that notion. He was significantly worse than his RB teammates in both rushing success rate (-14.2 percent career discrepancy) and yards before contact (a hard-to-believe -20.2 percent career discrepancy). His career yard per rush average came in 11.7 percent below the Baylor RB average.

So, why are we even talking about Chicago's sixth-round selection?

Two reasons:

1. Ebner recorded a career avoided tackle rate of 45% on 320 attempts.

Highest career CFB avoided tackle rates:
(min 300 attempts -- past five seasons)

45% - Travis Ebner
44% - Javonte Williams
42% - David Montgomery
40% - Malik Willis
39% - Zack Moss
36% - Travis Etienne, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
35% - Ken Walker, Najee Harris, Trey Sermon

2. Ebner piled up 1,248 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air.

Career target per route run rate:
(minimum 300 routes)

23.8% -- Tyler Badie (701 routes)
22.2% -- Trestan Ebner (704 routes)
21.7% -- Tony Pollard (545 routes)
20.7% -- D'Andre Swift (434 routes)
20.3% -- Kyren Williams (444 routes)
20.2% -- Saquon Barkley (321 routes)
20.1% -- James Cook (368 routes)
18.6% -- Travis Etienne (695 routes)

Career yard per route rate:

2.15 -- Trestan Ebner
1.98 -- James Cook
1.97 -- Saquon Barkley
1.82 -- Tony Pollard
1.66 -- Travis Etienne
1.64 -- Tyler Badie
1.53 -- D'Andre Swift
1.52 -- Kyren Williams

What type of impact will Ebner have at the NFL level? Your guess is as good mine. There's clearly upside, though. If I have a bench spot available in Dynasty formats or even deep PPR season-long leagues, Ebner is exactly the type of stash that I would make.

Cincinnati Bengals

There's not much ambiguity in Cincinnati's offense -- Joe Mixon will dominate the early-down work and the receiving volume is going to be concentrated on Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd. It will require an injury to one of those four for an under-the-radar Bengal to emerge as Fantasy-relevant.

If Mixon is injured, Samaje Perine and Chris Evans will likely see an expanded role but split touches. Evans is likely to open as Cincinnati's third-down back, while Perine is the more likely candidate to inherit early-down work if Mixon is injured.

Cleveland Browns

Third-round slot technician David Bell may start his rookie season slowly after missing the early portion of training camp. My hope is that Bell has found his groove by the time Deshaun Watson is under center.

Bell's CFB data profile is worth a glance if you have a few minutes available -- he profiles as a perfect replacement for Jarvis Landry, and Landry was fed targets at one of the highest per-route rates in the NFL while operating out of the slot in Kevin Stefanski's offense.

Dallas Cowboys

The collegiate data for Round 3 selection Jalen Tolbert is extremely exciting as well. He was in a league of his own as an air yardage hog and premier deep threat at the CFB level and proved to be a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands. With Michael Gallup unlikely to be ready for Week 1 and James Washington set to miss multiple months, Tolbert could be locked into an every-down role from the get-go. Sign me up.

Denver Broncos

An explosive downfield weapon, Greg Dulcich is a perfect complement to Albert Okwugbunam. The incumbent tight end's average depth of target was just 5.7 yards in 2021, while Dulcich's 13.2-yard career aDOT at UCLA is the highest among 57 qualified tight ends. If he earns regular playing time, Denver's Round 3 selection could fit well with Russell Wilson -- the NFL's leader in average depth of target in 2021.

On a per-route basis, Dulcich's name is right up there with some of the most explosive tight ends drafted in recent years.

Career yard per route run rate:

2.86 -- Harrison Bryant
2.42 -- Isaiah Likely
2.36 -- Kyle Pitts
2.11 -- Trey McBride
2.04 -- Greg Dulcich
1.81 -- Brevin Jordan
1.64 -- Pat Freiermuth

With Tim Patrick suffering a season-ending ACL injury, Dulcich and K.J. Hamler both stand out as dope deep Denver sleepers.

Detroit Lions

Remember when Craig Reynolds came out of nowhere and rushed for 83 yards on 11 attempts in Week 14 last year, which he followed up with 112 yards on 26 carries in Week 15?

The Lions don't have many reserve options that excite me. The offense already has far more competent options than Jared Goff is capable of facilitating Fantasy-relevant volume to. It would take an injury or two for Reynolds to become Fantasy-relevant -- that is the case for almost any Lion not already on the mainstream Fantasy radar. At least with Reynolds, we have seen that it is a realistic possibility.

Green Bay Packers

Training camp reports have been positive for rookie Round 4 selection Romeo Doubs, who will need to beat out two of the following three -- Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, or Christian Watson -- for playing time. If he does find the field, Doubs had decent enough CFB data to believe that he could find some semblance of Fantasy value while catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.

Houston Texans

People don't seem to have any interest in Nico Collins, and I don't understand it. He feels like such a logical late-round dart throw.

Houston's 2021 third-round selection had decent-enough rookie rates, even while dealing with shoulder, foot, and hip injuries. He had nearly identical per-route rates to Rashod Bateman, and unlike Bateman (whom I remain excited for going forward!), we actually saw progression from Collins as his rookie season moved along.

In six games prior to Houston's Week 10 bye, Collins drew a target on 14.4% of his routes. In eight games following the bye, he was targeted on 18.3% of his routes. He pushed that rate up to 21.1% across the final five games of the 2021 season and was targeted on at least 18% of his routes in every game.

I am projecting Houston to play at a quicker pace and pass more frequently with Pep Hamilton calling the plays. Any progression in his per-route rates from Year 1 to Year 2 should put Collins into the top-50 Fantasy WR conversation if Houston's offense does increase the passing volume.

Update: Tyler Johnson was thrown overboard by the Buccaneers, who have a treasure trove of talent available at the wide receiver position. One team's trash is the Houston Texans' treasure, as they say!

Seriously though, Tyler Johnson was a stud at the collegiate level. When he and Rashod Bateman were on the same team, Johnson was the clear-cut WR1. He's been completely ignored by Tom Brady in a pretty sizable sample size (554 routes), and Johnson brings just a fifth-round draft capital -- it's possible that he won't play a down for the Texans. Houston does need a replacement slot weapon for John Metchie though, and Johnson's CFB data suggests that he could be that guy for them.

Johnson was targeted at one of the highest rates this preseason, for what it's worth:

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts ranked 28th in pass-to-run ratio in 2021, attempting a pass on 52% of offensive plays. In neutral situations (score within six points), Indy ranked 19th. Situation neutral pass-to-run ratio is more sticky year-over-year than overall pass-to-run ratio -- it gives a clearer indication of how offenses prefer to operate if game script is removed from the equation.

Matt Ryan's offenses have typically been quite pass-happy, and I am expecting Indy to throw the ball much more frequently than in 2021. That additional volume should help support Michael Pittman's inevitable Year 3 breakout, and it could allow one ancillary pass-catcher behind Pittman to be relevant in Fantasy.

Rookie Alec Pierce provides Indy with a valuable real-life field-stretching option, but Matt Ryan's tendencies make it unlikely for the Cincinnati product to produce at a high level statistically in Year 1. Instead, Parris Campbell is the Colt who I would target at the end of 2022 season-long drafts. Campbell was wildly productive on a per-route basis at the CFB level, and that has translated on an admittedly small sample size in the NFL.

Campbell has been particularly effective from the slot, drawing a target on 23.4%t of his routes -- compared to just a 16.3% rate when running outside of the slot. The slot role appears to be Campbell's to lose, and he could thrive in it if 2022 is the year he finally can remain healthy.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Update: Laquon Treadwell was a surprise cut, so we'll go with Jamal Agnew here instead.

Agnew was targeted at a surprisingly high rate in 2021 and worked his way into the starting slot role before being injured. His 21.4% target per route run rate was higher than the rates put up by Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk, for what it's worth. If there's an injury to any of Jacksonville's wide receivers, I would expect Agnew to step into a regular role.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's Round 2 playmaker Skyy Moore has the potential to be a difference maker at the NFL level, but the converted cornerback could take some time to adapt to the NFL game. If Moore isn't ready for a full-time role in Year 1, then 2022 could finally be the season that Mecole Hardman is trusted with regular playing time.

Hardman has been the Chief whose production has been the most impacted by Tyreek Hill's presence, and if his splits with Hill off of the field are any indication, 2022 could be. a big year for the fourth-year wideout.

Mecole Hardman 2019-2021:

Hill OFF – 18.7% and 1.90 (439 routes)
Hill ON – 16.6% and 1.52 (625 routes)

Mecole Hardman 2021:

Hill OFF – 21.5% and 2.19 (144 routes)
Hill ON – 18.2% and 1.32 (286 routes)

Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White gets the job done. Often outshined by more electric backfield playmakers in D'Andre Swift and James Cook, White just kept plugging away at Georgia, recording a notably higher rushing success rate than either big play back.

Career rushing success rate at Georgia:

49.9% -- Zamir White
46.8% -- D'Andre Swift
46.1% -- James Cook

White's CFB data profiles him as a slightly worse version of former Georgia RBs Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. Those two were significantly more explosive than White, but their rushing success rates and short-yardage data was comparable.

As a fourth-round selection with impressive rushing efficiency, it is conceivable that White might eventually work his way into Fantasy relevancy. He profiles as an early-down only option, though, and there's no clear path to playing time in Year 1.

Los Angeles Chargers

Unlike several backs from the 2022 class, Isaiah Spiller proved capable of convincing an offensive decision-maker to let him remain on the field in obvious passing situations. He was on the field for 73% of Texas A&M's third downs during his three-year career.

Obviously, Austin Ekeler is the passing-down back in Los Angeles. Showing an ability to play on all three downs is intriguing and increasingly rare, though.

The role that L.A. more likely envisions the 6-foot-1 and 215-pound Spiller in involves grinding out short-yardage gains -- something that he did quite well in his time at Texas A&M. Only six backs from the 2022 class earned 100-plus attempts with three or fewer yards to gain during their CFB career. Displayed below you'll find each back's rushing success rate on those attempts.

Career rushing success rate with three or fewer yards to gain:
(minimum 100 attempts)

77.1% -- Brian Robinson
76.5% -- Isaiah Spiller
75.8% -- Tyler Allgeier
70.5% -- Tyler Badie
69.9% -- Hassan Haskins
66.7% -- Breece Hall

Similarly, Spiller was one of the class's most effective rushers on goal line opportunities.

Career rushing success rate from inside the 10-yard line:
(minimum 30 attempts)

66.7% -- Isaiah Spiller
65.7% -- Brian Robinson
65.1% -- Zamir White
62.5% -- Tyler Allgeier
62.2% -- Tyler Badie
60.7% -- Hassan Haskins
60.0% -- Kenneth Walker

Another metric that favors Spiller: avoided tackle rate. Spiller improved his avoided tackle rate from 19% in Year 1 to 27% in Year 2 before posting a massive 38% in Year 3. Pierce and Trestan Ebner (43 percent) were the only rookies who avoided tackles at a higher rate in 2021.

Alright, now that I have you all too excited about a mid-fourth-round selection, it's red flag time.

Spiller has had the lowest rushing success rate in Texas A&M's backfield in each of his three seasons with the team. I'm not saying he has been lower than the team average, I am saying that he has been the worst back out of any number of backs that received rushing attempts, according to rushing success rate. Spiller's career 5.53 yards per attempt looks great until you compare it to a teammate average of 6.55.

Spiller eventually lost work to his backfield mates, too -- his percentage of the team RB rushing attempts dropped from 79% in 2020 to 50% in 2021. He saw 81 percent of the red zone rushing attempts in 2020 but just 46 percent in 2021. When inside the 10-yard line, A&M elected to give the 5-foot-9 and 185-pound Devon Achane more attempts than Spiller.

Achane has been one of CFB's most efficient rushers in recent memory -- overall, I'm not criticizing Spiller too harshly for losing out on work to him. But still, I was shocked to see that Achane was more involved when in scoring distance.

Spiller's lack of explosiveness, his workload in 2021, and his draft day slide all are reasons for concern. There are plenty of metrics that favor him, but his prospect profile is far from complete. His landing spot provides upside if Austin Ekeler is ever removed from the equation, but overall, Spiller's chances of finding Fantasy relevancy seem slim.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford's career shows a proclivity for targeting the RB position. Both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson have struggled to draw targets at even a league average rate, though.

So, L.A. when added a clear passing down specialist in Kyren Williams, it caught my attention. Williams drew a target on 20.3% of his CFB routes -- a rate comparable to D'Andre Swift (20.7 percent) and Saquon Barkley (20.2%). He could work his way into a receiving role as a rookie, and there's potential for more if either Akers or Henderson miss time.

Miami Dolphins

Update: The Dolphins released Sony Michel, and still Raheem Mostert has an average draft position of RB50.

That RB50 ADP was pulled from data accumulated in drafts that took place since the Michel news. There has been a lot of news to react to, so players like Michel and Mostert aren't at the forefront of the minds of most Fantasy managers. This is an interesting move by Miami, though -- Michel was expected to fill a complementary role in this offense. It's possible that this signals trust in Mostert's health. With Michel removed from the equation, Mostert could very well take the largest portion of the early-down split in Miami.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is expected to be much more pass-heavy and utilize three-receiver sets far more often under the direction of new head coach Kevin O'Connell. This change should mean significantly more playing time for K.J. Osborn, whose per-route rates were solid enough in 2021 to suggest that he could be usable in Fantasy with regular reps in his third season.

New England Patriots

I'm not sure who the real culprit was -- injuries, Josh McDaniels, or some sort of issue with Jonnu Smith -- but New England's $50 million tight end barely played in his first season with the Patriots. When he was allowed to play, Smith was highly productive.

Smith was targeted on 28.5% of his routes and averaged 1.89 yards per route run in 2021. Displayed below is how those rates stacked up among other tight ends with at least 150 routes run.

Target per route run leaders at TE in 2021:

28.5% -- Jonnu Smith
24.6% -- Mark Andrews
24.3% -- Darren Waller
24.2% -- George Kittle
23.5% -- Albert Okwuegbunam
21.9% -- Travis Kelce
21.7% -- Zach Ertz and Kyle Pitts

Yard per route run leaders at TE in 2021:

2.34 -- George Kittle and Dallas Goedert
2.18 -- Mark Andrews
2.02 -- Kyle Pitts
1.94 -- Albert Okwuegbunam
1.86 -- Jonnu Smith
1.84 -- Travis Kelce
1.75 -- Darren Waller

It has been reported that Jonnu Smith has had a positive offseason -- if Joe Judge and Bill Belichick decide that they want him on the field more in 2022, it wouldn't be any surprise for Smith to outproduce Hunter Henry (18.6% target per route run rate and 1.50 yard per route run rate in 2021).

New Orleans Saints

On a per-route basis, Deonte Harty (formerly known as Deonte Harris) was one of the NFL's most efficient pass-catchers in 2021.

There's no clear path to playing time for the five-foot-six and 170-pound playmaker, but I absolutely believe that he would ball out if the Saints did create a real role for him. 

New York Giants

If any of New York's top three suffers injury, Wan'Dale Robinson's second-round draft capital and impressive CFB data profile both suggest that he could produce with an opportunity for regular routes. He was used out of the backfield less and ran a slightly more traditional route tree after transferring to Kentucky in 2021, and the only player targeted at a higher per-route rate was Drake London. Robinson's 2021 yard per route run rate matched Treylon Burks' as the highest in the class.

An NFL team used a second-round pick to add him to a roster with a second-year first-round selection who does the same job, and that came after Robinson turned in measurables that almost always preclude receivers from being selected in Rounds 1 or 2 -- Robinson might just be a special player. His data profile is strong enough to justify that possibility.

New York Jets

Michael Carter's CFB data was extremely exciting, and he followed that up with even more exciting data at the NFL level. Before the Jets added Breece Hall in the 2022 NBFL Draft, Carter projected as a top-20 Fantasy RB in PPR formats. That's the type of upside that his pass-catching ability offers if Carter finds himself in a regular role.

With Hall added to the backfield, Carter has dropped all the way to the RB39 according to the most recent ADP data. At that range, he's barely being selected ahead of players like Nyheim Hines and Kenneth Gainwell who project for a similar role -- limited early-down involvement and potentially the bulk of their team's passing down reps. But unlike those backs, Carter would likely assume a psuedo-three-down role if the early-down backfield leader sustained an injury.

Philadelphia Eagles

Rhamondre Stevenson was one of my favorite overlooked prospects entering the 2021 NFL Draft, and he showed flashes of excellence as a rookie -- totaling 295 yards from Weeks 9-11. As members of the same backfield in 2019, Kennedy Brooks was the clear workhorse, handling 155 attempts to Stevenson's 64.

In 2018, as a true freshman, Brooks took away a significant chunk of third-round selection Trey Sermon's workload. Sermon out-carried Brooks 164-to-119, but Brooks out-gained the veteran starter 1,056 to 947 on the ground. For his career, Brooks sat at roughly two percent above the Oklahoma RB average in rushing success rate and yards per attempt, even while sharing the backfield with a third and fourth-round NFL pick.

Brooks could be elite as a rusher.

In addition to outproducing NFL prospects in the same backfield, Brooks posted an avoided tackle rate above 30% in all three seasons at Oklahoma. Only Ebner and Walker avoided tackles at a higher career rate. Brooks also was the class's most explosive rusher, statistically. 20.6% of his career attempts gained 10 or more yards -- James Cook (18.7%) and Ebner (18.1%) were the only other two above 17.5%. 7.8 percent of Brooks' attempts gained 20-plus yards -- Cook (7.4%) and Walker (6.7%) were the only other backs above 6%.

Brooks brings next to nothing as a pass-catcher, but he legitimately might have what it takes to work as the preferred early-down option for an NFL team. He's a name to watch as training camp and preseason progress.

Update: Brooks had just a ho-hum preseason and was placed on the practice squad. He could still conceivably find himself in a role for Philly this year, but it is looking increasingly unlikely.

Pittsburgh Steelers

As an 18-year-old, George Pickens looked every bit the part of a Round 1 selection. He drew a target on 28% of his routes, which was the third-highest rate among 32 players who had an aDOT of 15 or more yards. Demanding targets at the rate Pickens did in 2019 is impressive for any player at his age. Doing it while also running such deep routes is really unique.

Things only got worse for Pickens following his Year 1 breakout, but the Steelers believed in him enough to invest a Round 2 selection. He appears likely to start alongside Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool and could immediately be relevant in Fantasy.

An even deeper Steeler sleeper is electric fourth-round rookie Calvin Austin out of Memphis. Austin is a smaller and less productive version of Khalil Shakir. He benefited from scripted touches but was also one of the most efficient producers in the class on non-scripted touch routes. He was a successful downfield route runner at Memphis. If context is removed, Austin's analytical profile is one of the best in the class.

He has no clear path to playing time, but Austin's data makes him worth a bench stash in Dynasty. And if either Johnson or Claypool miss time with injury, Austin could play a regular role.

Update: Pickens has received so much hype that he barely belongs on this list at this point. Jaylen Warren is the new cool Steeler to get excited about.

San Francisco 49ers

I'm not super into wide receiver Danny Gray as a prospect. I certainly don't understand how he warranted a third-round selection in San Francisco's eyes. Gray's 4.33 speed never translated to significant deep threat ability at SMU, and he never separated himself as capable of demanding a WR1-level target share.

But, Gray has reportedly put on a show at Niners camp, and the team invested heavily in him. If something were to force Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk off the field for an extended period, there's a decent chance that Gray would receive a real opportunity at regular reps. He has the speed to get behind defenses, and Trey Lance has the arm to find him there.

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's 2021 second-round selection Dee Eskridge is still plagued by a hamstring issue that sidelined him for most of his rookie campaign, and he's no guarantee to find the field in 2022. And if he does find the field, Eskridge will compete for targets with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in what is likely to be the NFL's lowest-volume passing offense.

With that said, Eskridge was a Round 2 pick for a reason and could ball out if the circumstances ever align for him to do so. From 2018-2020, only three receivers averaged more yards per route run than Eskridge (3.53). If we look at only his final two seasons, the data becomes a bit more reliable because Eskridge only ran 164 routes. Among players with at least 150 routes run during that time, Eskridge's absurd 5.23 yard per route run was the only rate above four yards. CeeDee Lamb (4.00) and DeVonta Smith (3.98) came in a distant second and third.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White was picked in Round 3 rather than Round 2, and Leonard Fournette is a more imposing Year 1 roadblock than Devin Singletary -- otherwise, he profiles similarly to James Cook, whose Fantasy draft cost is notably higher. Both backs bring a limited body of work and were almost never used in short-yardage situations. And both backs were extremely efficient with their route-running opportunities.

Unfortunately, we only have 233 CFB routes worth of data on White. The data that we have is extremely exciting, though. If Fournette misses time at any point, White could legitimately offer top-10 Fantasy RB value while occupying a three-down role.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee selected the 6-foot-1 and 220-pound Hassan Haskins in Round 4 ahead of bruisers like Tyler Allgeier, Snoop Conner, and Keaontay Ingram, and he could step into a featured role on early downs if Derrick Henry's well-worn tires fail him again.

Haskins only brings one year of starting experience, and the data that he gave us in that one year isn't exciting. Tyrion Davis-Price is the only rookie back who avoided tackles at a lower rate in 2021. Haskins showed questionable vision with a yard before contact rate that was 9.1 percent below his RB teammate average; that discrepancy ranked 11th among the 20 rookie backs that I evaluated. Combining a low avoided tackle rate with a low yard before contact rate is usually a recipe for a really low explosive rush rate, and that held true for Haskins. He ranked 13th in the percentage of rushes that resulted in a gain of 10-plus yards and 14th in the percentage that gained 20-plus yards. And to top it off, Haskins was a non-factor as a pass-catcher.

It's not all bad, though. Haskins' straight-ahead running style allowed him to convert positive results at a much higher rate than his teammates while running behind subpar blocking at Michigan. His career rushing success rate was 8.6% better than his RB teammates -- only Kenneth Walker and Allgeier had a higher discrepancy.

I have almost no exposure to Derrick Henry in 2022, so Haskins is a lottery ticket that I am gladly scooping up at the end of deep season-long drafts. I have also found myself a bit higher on him than consensus when it comes to Dynasty formats, which surprised me. I'm not all that into Haskins as a prospect, but his position as Henry's direct backup does provide him with the opportunity to play a significant role if the aging RB has to miss any time.

Washington Commanders

Washington's first-round selection Jahan Dotson is still being selected late enough to be considered a deep sleeper, but he may not be available late in sharper drafts. The real deep sleeper might be rookie QB Sam Howell.

Carson Wentz's reckless play style has left him with a long history of injuries -- if Wentz misses time, Howell could slide in and find success with a talented group of pass-catchers in Washington.

Howell was a tough tackle to make during his time at North Carolina, boasting a career avoided tackle rate better than that of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts. The majority of his rushing came in 2021, which coincides with North Carolina's offense losing Dyami Brown, Michael Carter, and Javonte Williams to the NFL Draft. With fewer playmakers available, Howell took it upon himself to move the chains.

Howell's rushing yards by season:

2019 -- 35
2020 -- 146
2021 -- 829

Howell's 2021 was one of the most efficient single-season rushing outputs we have seen from a QB over the past five seasons. Really, Malik Willis' 2021 is the only season that rivals it.

Single-season avoided tackle rate:
(minimum 100 rushes)

48% -- Malik Willis (2021)
36% -- Sam Howell (2021)
33% -- Malik Willis (2020)
25% -- Matt Corral (2020)
22% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
21% -- Kyler Murray (2018)
21% -- Jalen Hurts (2019)

Single-season rushing success rate:

68% -- Sam Howell (2021)
67% -- Malik Willis (2021)
63% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
62% -- Malik Willis (2020)
59% -- Jalen Hurts (2017)
59% -- Kyler Murray (2017)

Single-season explosive rush rate:
(percentage of rushes that gained 10 or more yards)

30% -- Malik Willis (2020)
29% -- Kyler Murray (2018)
26% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
26% -- Jalen Hurts (2017)
25% -- Sam Howell (2021)
23% -- Malik Willis (2021)

While Howell's rushing production picked up in a major way while playing without his primary playmakers in 2021, the same cannot be said for his passing efficiency. His passer efficiency rate was a career-low in 2021, while his interception rate was a career-high.

Scouts question Howell's arm talent, and many of his passing metrics do suggest that he may struggle at the NFL level. Add just a fifth-round draft capital to the equation, and there's a decent chance that Howell never makes an impact in the NFL. You shouldn't be drafting him as if he will, though. Howell is extremely cheap after his fall to Round 5. I make sure to grab him at the end of deep Superflex drafts -- if Wentz misses extended time, Howell could be a weekly top-20 Fantasy QB if his rushing metrics translate to the pros.