Buccaneers rule out Godwin, Watson, and McCoy: Fantasy football impact

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a full injury report ahead of Thursday's showdown with the Chicago Bears. Wide receivers Chris Godwin and Justin Watson have already been ruled out, while Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are listed as questionable. Third-down back LeSean McCoy has been ruled out as well, and early-down thumper Leonard Fournette -- who NFL RedZone's Scott Hanson understandably mixed up with LeGarrette Blount twice this weekend -- is listed as doubtful. The Bucs also lost tight end O.J. Howard for the season with a ruptured Achilles in Week 4. Tampa Bay is down to a 3.5-point favorite. 

What does this all mean for Fantasy? With the Buccaneers implied for a healthy 24-point total, there is likely to be some Fantasy goodness to go around. Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and 5 touchdowns against a stingy Chargers secondary with Godwin sidelined in Week 4, but 90 yards and one touchdown is missing from that production with Howard and Watson sidelined.

The Backfield

Ronald Jones played a career-high 64 percent of the offensive snaps with Fournette sidelined in Week 4. His previous high for the season was 51 percent. Jones also ran 25 routes, up from his average of 14 through the first three weeks. LeSean McCoy had been averaging over 12 routes run per game, and Jones' career-high nine targets last week suggests that his role in the passing game could stand to grow with Shady sidelined.

While it's easy to get excited about Jones' 111 rushing yards and career-best usage, remember that rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn is looming. Vaughn worked in for just 25 percent of the snaps in Week 4, which was enough for him to see three carries and three targets. He turned one of those targets into the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, which apparently was enough for Vaughn to get an 'I love you' from Tom Brady. Giving out 'ILYs' on the first date is an unexpectedly Ted Mosby move from Brady, who apparently is embracing his sentimental side in his age-43 season.

While it is unclear whether Brady's affection for Vaughn will mean more snaps in the rookie's second pro game, it is worth noting that he ran a route on 12 of his 19 snaps. Vaughn actually led Tampa Bay's backfield with three third-down reps, followed closely by McCoy (2) and RoJo (1). This is a fluid situation, and there's no way of knowing this with any certainty, but it's entirely possible that Vaughn will operate as the primary passing down back for Tampa on Thursday.

In terms of goal line work, RoJo was in for five goal to go snaps and Vaughn was in for two. All things considered, Jones should play north of 60 percent of the snaps and be leaned on as a chain mover for Tampa's banged-up offense. But don't be surprised if Vaughn cuts into Jones' receiving role or steals a goal line touchdown. I have Jones ranked as my RB21 for 0.5 PPR formats, while Vaughn comes in as my RB44. Both are strong values for the showdown slate. You can find my thoughts on the showdown slate here, and you can check out my RB rankings right here.

The Slot

In the two games that Godwin has missed, it has been Justin Watson, not Scotty Miller, who has seen the boost in playing time. Watson has barely played when Godwin was on the field, but he's registered an 89 percent and 74 percent snap rate in the two games without Godwin. For reference, Miller played 69 percent and 53 percent of the snaps in those games. The Bucs have been hesitant to use Miller from the slot, for whatever reason. Just eight of his 40 snaps came from the slot last week, and Miller has yet to play more than 13 snaps from the slot in a game.

With Godwin and Watson sidelined, it's possible that changes in Week 5. We could see Miller play more in the slot and finish with north of 70 percent of the snaps for the first time this season. However, Tampa Bay's fifth-round rookie Tyler Johnson might have something to say about that.

Johnson was inactive for the first two games of the season, but he's topped a 30 percent snap rate in each of the past two games. 13 of his 25 snaps came from the slot last week, and we could see Johnson elevated into a role that resembles what we've seen from Justin Watson in Weeks 2 and 4. Watson led the receivers in snaps and routes run in each of those games, and that type of volume would make Johnson one of the best per-dollar showdown plays available on Thursday at just $200 on DraftKings.

In the two games Chris Godwin has played, Mike Evans has just an 11.4 percent target share and has finished as the WR40 and WR25 in Fantasy. In the two games Godwin has missed, the target share is over 20 percent and Evans has finished as the WR6 and WR5 in Fantasy.

The injury news for Evans and Miller could change things, but as it currently stands, I have Evans as my WR11, Miller as my WR51, and Johnson as my WR76. Find my full WR rankings here.

The Tight Ends

The O.J. Howard injury is not insignificant. He had a 53 percent snap rate prior to Week 4's game, and his 12.4 percent target share ranked fourth on the team. After playing below 10 percent of the snaps in each of the first three games, Cameron Brate was on the field for 21 percent of the snaps and 33 percent of the goal to go plays in Week 4. Brate turned one of those goal to go opportunities into a touchdown, and he'll likely be in some DFS lineups on Thursday as a result. While I don't hate the play, it's worth noting that Brate only ran a route on three of his 17 snaps in Week 4. He was used almost exclusively as a blocker, even though the Bucs were losing for most of that game.

Rob Gronkowski's snap rate (86 percent) fell a bit from the 93 percent Week 3 mark that got everyone in a tizzy heading into last week's matchup, and he ran a route on just 32 of his 67 snaps. Gronk was on the field for all nine of Tampa's goal to go plays and ran a route on all six of their goal to go dropbacks, one of which drew a target. There is touchdown upside here, but you're likely going to be left disappointed if he doesn't find the end zone.

Gronkowski is my TE15 for Week 5, while Brate comes in at TE32. Find my full Week 5 TE rankings here.

So which teams should you back in Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender goes down HARD? ... Join SportsLine right now to see who wins and covers every single NFL game this week, plus get the exact final score, all from the acclaimed model that has returned over $7,300 on its top-rated NFL picks!