Week 5 Fantasy Football Helper: RB Rankings and DFS Plays

If you're starting your Fantasy football Week 5 research or working on DFS lineups for this weekend's games, you NEED to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs' Fantasy football draft rankings were the seventh-most accurate in the nation in 2019, per FantasyPros, and he is back with his exclusive Week 1 Fantasy Football Helper for SportsLine users.

Last season, Gibbs projected big-time breakouts for Lamar Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Dalvin Cook. He also identified Darren Waller as the top late-round tight end. Anyone who followed Gibbs' draft advice in 2019 was well on their way to a league title.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant RB's stats and come up with stunning projections. 

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 5: San Francisco running back Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon is ranked as the RB20 on average, but Gibbs has him ranked as the RB9 this week.

Gibbs also is calling for a RB you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 15 at his position! This player could be the difference between winning BIG or going home with nothing.

So who are the best players to target at the RB position in Week 5? And which RB that you aren't thinking about is set to put up a monster point total? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Tier 1 -- Auto Starts
Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry

Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't yet put up the production that would qualify him for this tier, but he has seen his percentage of the team's RB touches increase each week. And there should be a ton of RB touches available with Kansas City listed as 12 point favorites against the Raiders. Kansas City's 33.5-point implied team total is the highest on the slate, and there's a chance that a lot of that scoring comes on the ground while playing with a lead. CEH ris tied for second in the NFL in carries from inside the five, but he has zero touchdowns to show for it. That should change in Week 5.

The rest of the backs in this tier are foolproof must-starts. With no positive Tennessee tests today, it's looking like the Titans-Bills game may actually play on Tuesday, so Derrick Henry owners could get him back this week after all.

Tier 2 -- "Pretty good. Prettaaay, prettaaay, pretty good."
Chris Carson, James Robinson, Mike Davis, Jonathan Taylor, Jerick McKinnon, Kareem Hunt

Carson -- Carson played 56 percent of the snaps and handled 19 of 28 RB touches in Week 4, despite what seemed to be a serious Week 3 knee injury. I'd expect him to play 55-65 percent of the snaps and handle roughly 20 touches as seven-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings. Couple that type of usage with Seattle's 32-point implied team total, and Carson has the makings of a near top-five Fantasy back in a plus matchup against the Vikes. Start him with confidence.

Robinson -- The role just keeps growing for Robinson, and what we saw from him in a game that the Jaguars trailed throughout last week was super encouraging.

The 54-point over/under in the Texans-Jags game is the third-highest this week, and while the Jags are five-point dogs, we saw Robinson flash potential game script independency in last week's matchup. He's a safe bet for another strong workload in this one, and given the soft matchup, Robinson could reach the top range of his outcomes in Week 5.

Davis -- Another upward trending Fantasy back in a terrific matchup, Davis faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that funnels underneath targets to running backs and tight ends. The Panthers haven't really targeted their tight ends under the new regime, but they have peppered Mike Davis with dump-offs. With Reggie Bonnafon out, Davis could play 80 percent of the snaps and handle 20-plus touches in an awesome matchup and game script. From a workload and game environment standpoint, it doesn't get much better than Mike Davis' Week 5 setup for PPR formats.

Taylor -- The past couple weeks have been frustrating for Taylor owners who were expecting top-five production with Marlon Mack out of the picture. If you want some reassurance regarding his ability, you can watch every carry the rookie handled last week here. A couple poorly timed slips kept Taylor from two chunk gains, but overall, he looked great last week. The only problem has been opportunity, and that has mostly been due to the game scripts. The Colts are less likely to be blowing their opponent out (they're just one-point favorites against the Browns) this week, which should mean a snap rate above 70 percent and 20-plus touches for Taylor. The matchup isn't ideal, and the chances of this becoming a shootout are low. I prefer the players listed above Taylor in this tier, but JT is still a top-10 back in Week 5. Don't let the last couple weeks dissuade you from trusting your stud RB.

McKinnon -- Raheem Mostert has put in two limited practices this week and is looking likely to suit up on Sunday. If he's active, McKinnon will be bumped down to Tier 3. I'd still expect McKinnon to play somewhere between 55-70 percent of the snaps, even if Mostert plays. Kyle Shanahan is as big of a "Jet" McKinnon fan as you'll find out there, and I'd be shocked if he limited his opportunities after how well he's played. Among qualified RBs, McKinnon ranks fourth in PFF rushing grade and fifth in receiving grade. Shanahan going away from his guy after he's played this well would be a real surprise.

If I had to guess, Mostert will be eased in in a game that the Niners should win easily against the Dolphins. Hopefully we'll get more information over the weekend, but as of now, I'm projecting it to be a 60/30/10 split between McKinnon/Mostert/JWJ. That should be enough for McKinnon to see 10-15 carries and 3-7 targets. That should be plenty for McKinnon to post a strong game against Miami's defense, especially when you consider that San Francisco is implied for over 30 points.

Hunt -- Kareem Hunt surprisingly played just 35 percent of the snaps in Week 4, even with Nick Chubb leaving the game in the first quarter. This is just speculation, but I don't think he was fully healthy for Week 4, and I think the plan was to ride Chubb and only use Hunt as needed. That plan got thrown off when Chubb went down, but Cleveland was still able to limit his reps while playing with a huge lead. The Browns seemed to be happy with how Hunt's groin responded, and he's been able to put in multiple limited practices this week, so there's some reason for optimism that his role will grow in Week 5.

Still, there is definitely some risk attached to using Hunt here. There's no guarantee that he'll see more than 10-15 touches, and the Browns' 23-point implied total doesn't suggest that multiple touchdown scoring opportunities will be available for him again. If we could project Hunt for a 55-65 percent snap rate and 15-20 touches, he'd be a top-eight Fantasy back in this spot, but that's just not where we're at with his health at the moment.

Tier 3 -- The upside is there, but don't ignore the red flags!
Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, David Johnson, Todd Gurley

Jacobs -- After his super encouraging Week 1 usage, Jacobs has seen four or fewer targets in each of the past three games. With the Raiders playing from behind in each of the past two games, Jacobs has finished with just 19 and 18 touches. And with the Raiders listed as 12-point underdogs, it's unlikely that Jacobs tops 20 touches in this game. The Raiders were outscored 19-68 in two meetings with the Chiefs in 2019, and Jacobs combined for just 39 touches in those games.

For what it's worth, the Chiefs defense is much easier to beat on the ground than through the air. I'd expect Vegas to try to establish the run early with Jacobs in this matchup, and if they get lucky with special teams plays or turnovers, they could see a different game script than the projected negative one. The most likely scenario does not set up well for a game script dependent back like Jacobs, though.

Mixon -- Speaking of game script dependent backs, Joe Mixon may be a massive let-down with his Bengals listed as 13-point dogs against Baltimore. His usage last week (particularly as a pass-catcher) was super exciting, but it did come in a game that Cincinnati was leading throughout.

We could see Mixon's snap rate come crashing back down if the Bengals get behind early in Week 5. Or, it is possible that Week 4 signaled a change, and he'll be used on passing downs more often going forward. Either way, this Baltimore defense is difficult to beat on the ground for running backs who aren't transcendent talents like Twitter favorite Antonio Gibson. It's unlikely that Mixon will finish as a top-10 RB in this spot, and we've seen how low his floor is when the game script doesn't favor him.

DJ -- Duke Johnson cut into David Johnson's usage way more than expected. After playing almost 100 percent of the snaps over the past two weeks (and 81 percent when Duke was active in Week 1), David Johnson's snap rate dropped all the way to 55 percent in Week 4. Both of the D. Johnsons ran 15 routes, and Duke saw one more target.

Still, DJ finished with 92 scrimmage yards on 18 touches, and he could reach that type of yardage output with one or two touchdowns with Houston implied for 29.5 points against the Jags in Week 5. I know he has been a frustrating player to own to this point, but the matchup and game script both set up quite well for Johnson in this spot.

Gurley -- He has been getting by almost entirely based on touchdown production, which isn't something I want to bank on repeating going forward. However, Gurley is facing a Panthers team that has allowed the most opposing RB touchdowns in the NFL, so Gurley owners may get one more highly productive week from the early-down-only grinder. You should absolutely be selling Todd Gurley after this week, though.

Tier 4 -- RB2s with usage, matchup, or game flow concerns
James Conner, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Gibson

Conner -- Philadelphia's pass funnel defense has forced opponents into the third-highest pass rate in neutral game scripts (score within six points). With Diontae Johnson returning for Pittsburgh, Big Ben has his full arsenal available, and I'd expect their offense to be pass-leaning for as long as this game is close. I do not expect it to be close for long, though, as Philly's offensive line will be completely overwhelmed by Pittsburgh's NFL-best pass rush. As a result, there should be lots of mop-up carries for Conner as the Steelers milk the clock to close the game out. Those carries might not be very successful against Philly's stout run defense. We've seen Mixon and McKinnon combine for just 103 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.3 YPC) over the past two weeks, and a similarly inefficient game from Conner wouldn't be a surprise. Still, there is multi-TD upside with Pittsburgh implied for 26 points.

Sanders -- On the other side of this game, Miles Sanders finds himself in an even worse matchup than Conner.

Sanders could see enough passing down involvement to still be a viable RB2 in PPR formats, but this is a terrible spot for him. I'd prefer to find an alternative if possible.

Singletary -- The workload has been great for Singletary recently, but Zack Moss is expected to return for this game. On top of that, there's question as to whether the game will even take place. Singletary's upside is always going to be capped by his lack of goal line work. In matchups and game scripts that set him up for success, with Moss sidelined, and with a rare goal line score in one of the games, Singletary still didn't finish as a top-12 Fantasy RB in either of the past two weeks. I'd be looking for a replacement with the amount of doubt around whether his game will take place.

Bell -- The most recent report on Bell mentioned that he 'looked good in practice and could be activated,' which would indicate that he'll likely be eased into his role similarly to Raheem Mostert. Unlike Mostert, though, Bell has little competition for touches. If projecting Bell for his expected workload entering the season, he'd be my RB13 in this game. So, at the top range of his outcomes in terms of playing time, Bell is someone I would consider using over guys like Joe Mixon, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and James Conner. However, a more conservative projection has Bell just outside of the top-20 Fantasy RBs. The Cardinals have not defended opposing RBs well this season, particularly through the air. Especially with an immobile passer in Joe Flacco under center, dump-offs to Lev Bell could be frequent for a Jets team that is in desperate need of weapons.

Gibson -- Antonio Gibson has been electric with the ball in his hands, and his acclimation to the NFL culminated into a 100-yard breakout performance in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens.

Even last week, Gibson was out-snapped by J.D. McKissic, who ran double the amount of pass routes as the rookie. It's possible that Ron Rivera and Scott Turner will continue to ease Gibson in. It's also possible that after last week, Gibson has shown his coaching staff all that they needed to see to entrust him with a more regular role on passing downs.

Ron Rivera said this week that Gibson "needed a preseason," and the team is "seeing him become more confident in practice." It's possible that with four games now under his belt, Gibson's 'preseason' phase is over. And if it is, Gibson could be about to set the Fantasy world on fire with the upcoming schedule that he faces.

To start things off, he'll face a Rams defense that prioritizes taking away downfield passing and forces opponents to beat them on the ground or through short and intermediate passing. L.A.'s opponents have funneled anywhere from 7-10 targets to the RB position three out of four weeks, and the only game that wasn't the case came against a Buffalo team that was last in the NFL in RB targets in 2019.

Here's how RBs have fared against the Rams this season:

Zeke -- 25 touches for 127 scrimmage yards and 2 TD
Sanders -- 23 touches for 131 scrimmage yards and a TD
Singletary -- 17 touches for 121 scrimmage yards
Freeman/Gallman -- 21 touches for 133 scrimmage yards

Again, we don't have any guarantee that Gibson will see even above 12-15 touches in this game, and it's possible that Washington's offense could fall apart entirely under Kyle Allen. There is a clear path to another strong game from the rookie, though. He's currently at RB17 in my rankings, ahead of players like Sanders, Singletary, Drake, and Bell.

Tier 5 -- I'd prefer not to start... But there is a path to upside if things break their way
Ronald Jones, Kenyan Drake, David Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, Darrell Henderson, Joshua Kelley, Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Latavius Murray, James White, Chase Edmonds

Drake -- Somehow, it just keeps getting worse each week for Drake. He's still seeing over 60 percent of the snaps and RB touches, but the results just haven't been there. The Jets are not good against the run, but they are more attackable through the air than on the ground. Still, the Cardinals are seven-point favorites, and the Jets' opponents have averaged well over 20 rushing attempts against them because New York's offense can't put points on the board. Drake could bounce back in this spot, but I totally get it if you aren't ready to trust him in your starting lineup until he proves something.

Gordon -- The snap rate has been sky high for Melv over the past few games, but I'd expect it to be closer to a 60/40 split with Phillip Lindsay returning this week. Combine that with a not-so-great matchup against New England and the likely inept quarterback play for the Broncos and this really doesn't set up as a great spot for Gordon. He's an okay bet-on-volume play if you don't have better options, but the volume won't even be as high as we've seen over the past few weeks.

Ingram -- The Ravens are implied for 32 points, which could mean multiple touchdowns for Mark Ingram. They're also listed as 13-point favorites, which could mean limited snaps for Ingram as Gus the Bus runs out the clock in the second-half. Ingram's snap rate has dropped for three-straight weeks, from 42 percent, to 32 percent, and then all the way down to 25 percent last week. He's an extremely boom-bust RB2 option, and one that I would prefer not to bank on.

Henderson -- Things change pretty fast in Fantasy football. Just a week ago, Henderson appeared poised to be a potential league-winner. Now, I'm not even sure if we can expect him to see double digit touches in an ideal game script against Washington. I hate it, but this appears to be the way Sean McVay wants to handle his backfield. With L.A. implied for 27 points and listed as 7.5-point favorites, we should expect 25-plus rushing attempts to be split among Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers. Henderson should see the highest total among that group, but it's tough to trust that he will after last week. And since the passing work is basically nonexistent, he is a super wide range of outcomes type of player who could end up sinking your lineup if things go wrong.

Kelley -- Here's how the usage broke down between Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson after Austin Ekeler's injury:

Snap rate: (57%) Kelley, 40% Jackson
Touches: (12) Kelley, (8) Jackson

Kelley did lose a costly fumble near the opposing end zone, but he still out-snapped and out-touched Jackson from that point on. It appears that Kelley will get the first crack at the starting job, but you should expect this to be some sort of committee. I'm not excited to use either in a matchup against a tough New Orleans run defense.

Gaskin -- He had seen his snap rate and target share rise each week, so I was optimistic that this was a spot he could succeed in, even if the Dolphins got behind and abandoned the run. That was not the case, though, as Gaskin's target share came crashing down from 26 percent in Week 3 to nine percent in Week 4. He still played 64 percent of the snaps, but in a game where the Dolphins dropped back to pass on 76 percent of their plays, Gaskin's target total was disappointing. He's a flex play this week, but not an exciting one.

Brown -- He saw one more carry than Henderson, while also being heavily involved as a receiver. Brown ran four more routes (22) than Tyler Higbee, and his six targets fell just one short of the team lead. Brown played 61 percent of the snaps, while Henderson saw just a 39 percent snap rate. It's anyone's guess how the backfield will be split with Akers returning this week, but Brown should continue to be involved as a receiver. He joins Henderson and Ingram as Tier 5 backs who could sink your lineup, but there is some upside here.

Murray -- The two touchdowns on just three goal to go plays was a bit fluky, but he could see a few scoring opportunities again with New Orleans implied for 29 points in this spot. Murray's snap rate (41 percent) was the highest it has been all season, and he saw 15 touches to complement Kamara's 22. I don't expect that type of usage again, but Murray still projects as a better option than any back you'll find in Tier 6.

White -- Eight targets in his first game back is encouraging, but the game script set up perfectly for White. Assuming Cam Newton doesn't play, White will likely see a number of dump-offs again, and he's among the highest floor plays of any of the RBs in this Tier for PPR formats.

Edmonds -- He continues to eat into Drake's work and do more with his touches. The Cardinals and Jets both like to play fast, which should mean a few extra plays in this game. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Edmonds finish with a season-high in touches and find the end zone again with Arizona implied for 27 points.

Tier 6 -- Break glass in case of emergency
Damien Harris, J.K. Dobbins, Devonta Freeman, Justin Jackson, Duke Johnson, Gus Edwards, D'Ernest Johnson

There's a path to Fantasy relevancy for each of these players, but the most likely scenario doesn't involve them seeing more than 5-10 PPR points. I'd prefer to take a shot on upside with one of these players than the guys in Tier 7, but it's a true dice roll.

Tier 7 -- "We don't like to say 'no' here, so I'll just say 'nah, bro."
Nyheim Hines, Rex Burkhead, Alexander Mattison, Zack Moss, Brian Hill, Jeff Wilson Jr., Jordan Howard, Dion Lewis

The only player from this tier who might move up is Zack Moss. If healthy, he projects better than the rest of the Tier 7 backs, but there's no guarantee that he plays. Moss has yet to put in a full practice, and with this game coming on Tuesday, it is going to be difficult to trust him in your starting lineup without more assurance regarding his status.

Early look at the RB position for DFS purposes in Week 5:
*All pricing referenced will be for DraftKings.

• If Raheem Mostert isn't able to make his return in Week 5, Jerick McKinnon will be on nearly all my rosters at just $5,800 against the Dolphins.
  
• Mike Davis has been priced up some, but he's still too cheap ($6,400) for the security that his role brings on a full PPR site. Especially in a matchup against the Falcons, Davis is looking like a cash game lock once again.
• Ezekiel Elliott should be priced closer to $8.5-9k given his passing game role and the matchup against the Giants. He's close to a cash game lock.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets a terrific matchup against the Raiders in a game that the Chiefs are implied for nearly 35 points. With a plethora of appealing RB options to choose from in Week 5, I'm not sure that many will "pay up" for CEH.
• Todd Gurley is just $5,700 and has legitimate three touchdown upside against the Carolina Panthers. His passing game role is too limited for me to go there in cash games, but Gurley could certainly end up being one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate.
• Jonathan Taylor ($6,200), Darrell Henderson ($5,300), David Johnson ($5,200), Le'Veon Bell ($5,100), and Antonio Gibson ($5,000) all are affordable and probably won't carry much ownership. They each have a path to upside and are worth considering in tournaments.

Week 5 RB Rankings:

1. Ezekiel Elliott
2. Alvin Kamara
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
4. Dalvin Cook
5. Derrick Henry
6. Chris Carson
7. James Robinson
8. Kareem Hunt
9. Mike Davis
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Josh Jacobs
12. James Conner
13. David Johnson
14. Joe Mixon
15. Todd Gurley
16. Jerick McKinnon
17. Antonio Gibson
18. Miles Sanders
19. Ronald Jones
20. Kenyan Drake
21. Devin Singletary
22. Le'Veon Bell
23. David Montgomery
24. Darrell Henderson
25. Joshua Kelley
26. Myles Gaskin
27. Mark Ingram
28. Devonta Freeman
29. Malcolm Brown
30. Latavius Murray
31. Chase Edmonds
32. J.K. Dobbins
33. Raheem Mostert
34. Justin Jackson
35. D'Ernest Johnson
36. Duke Johnson
37. Nyheim Hines
38. Gus Edwards
39. Alexander Mattison
40. Brian Hill
41. Jordan Howard
42. Ke'Shawn Vaughn
43. J.D. McKissic
44. Cam Akers
45. Zack Moss
46. Frank Gore
47. Gio Bernard
48. Chris Thompson
49. Tony Pollard
50. Wayne Gallman
51. Travis Homer
52. Matt Breida
53. Jalen Richard
54. Jordan Wilkins
55. Jeff Wilson Jr.
56. Dion Lewis
57. Darrel Williams
58. Boston Scott
59. Lamical Perine
60. Ito Smith
61. Dontrell Hilliard
62. Devontae Booker
63. DeeJay Dallas
64. Benny Snell
65. Kyle Juszcyzyk
66. Darrynton Evans
67. Anthony McFarland
68. Peyton Barber
69. Trenton Cannon
70. Corey Clement

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