It's generally not worth your time to bet on Alabama when it's at home, but in 10 games at home under Nick Saban when they've been favored by 17 or more, they've gone 7-3 ATS. The Tide have beaten the Aggies by an average of 20.5 points in the last two years, and only one of its wins against the Aggies since 2014 has come by fewer than 17 points.

The Tide had a solid if unspectacular performance last week against Missouri. Mac Jones was efficient at QB and Najee Harris carried the load in the backfield. The defense yielding 322 yards and 19 points to a limited Missouri team is a bit of a concern, but the opt-out depleted Aggies struggled to get past lowly Vanderbilt in an ugly performance. Of course they will improve, but this sets up as a favorable spot for Alabama to take advantage of an undermanned opponent.

I like this spread for Alabama. This is a much more manageable point spread against an SEC opponent. Offensively, the Aggies struggled versus Vanderbilt, but the Commodores offense couldn't capitalize on the added possessions. With the way Alabama's offense looked against a solid Missouri defense, don't expect the team to mismanage bonus possessions.