GASPARILLA BOWL -- The weather forecast for the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa does not bode well for the two offenses. High winds and some possible precipitation will limit the scoring, as will a UCF defense that has played better this season than most realize. Still, I don't want to take the Knights because Marshall coach Doc Holliday is an absolute spread-covering monster in bowl games. Instead we'll go Under.

GASPARILLA BOWL -- The most successful bowl team of the 21st century is getting a mighty sweet 16. Say no more. Coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 straight-up and ATS in bowl games at Marshall, whose program has gone 12-2 outright. Central Florida winds down a disappointing three-loss season, in which it covered in two of the last nine, after partaking in top-of-the-line bowls the past two years. Illustrating the letdown, top WR Gabe Davis and No. 2 RB Adrian Killins are expected to choose NFL draft preparations over playing.

GASPARILLA BOWL -- I have a ton of confidence in Marshall's defense, which does a great job of both communicating at the second and third levels and matching up on the perimeter. I don't have the same confidence in the team's ability to keep UCF's explosive offense off the field. Therefore, it'll be hard for the Thundering Herd to cover the spread as the Knights are a different animal when it comes to pace and consistency on offense.