While the NBA is cracking down on teams resting star players in one leg of a back-to-back, it's still somewhat easy to tell when a team might do so. Thus it's no surprise at all that Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will not play in the second game of a back-to-back Thursday night at the Western Conference-best Minnesota Timberwolves, who opened as low as -7 on the SportsLine consensus but are now -13.5. The total has dropped a few points to 226.
Doncic was questionable Wednesday at home vs. Cleveland with a quad injury but played and shined with 39 points, seven rebounds and six assists. He played 39 minutes. Dallas managed to lose 113-110 despite leading for nearly the entire game. I doubt we'll see Doncic in the second game of a back-to-back all season – unless it's a vital game – when he plays that many minutes the night before.
In the past three games, Doncic is averaging 42.7 points, 10.3 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 2.0 blocks in 37.7 minutes per game. He's a +450 third favorite for MVP. Doncic averages just 24.1 points career vs. the Timberwolves, his lowest scoring average against any team. When Dallas lost the first meeting of the season at home against Minnesota, 119-101, on Dec. 14, Doncic had 39 points, 13 assists and six rebounds.
The updated Mavericks team total for Thursday is 106.5 points. The team averages 119.0 points per game, seventh in the league. Minnesota leads the NBA in scoring defense at 107.3 PPG.
Dallas has not reached triple digits in two games without Doncic this year, losing 108-94 in Memphis on Dec. 1 and 122-96 in Houston on Dec. 22. For a point of comparison, Dallas was 5-11 without Doncic last season and averaged 111.0 PPG. Fellow All-Star Kyrie Irving will miss his 11th straight game due to a heel injury. The books haven't added any updated Mavericks individual props yet, but Dante Exum will likely benefit the most in terms of usage and shot volume with Doncic sidelined.
Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable with a knee issue but did participate in the Timberwolves' morning shootaround. That doesn't mean he will play, but it'sa good sign. Towns returned from a one-game absence Tuesday and is averaging 23.6 points and 9.0 rebounds in his past five.
The Timberwolves have already set the franchise record for wins through their first 30 games of a season (22). They rank first in winning percentage (.750) vs. teams that are currently .500 or better and third (.493) in field goal percentage vs. teams that are.500 or better.
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