Blake Griffin to Nets odds fallout: No change on Brooklyn to win NBA title; SportsLine Projection Model forecasts slight regression with Griffin

Six-time NBA All-Star Blake Griffin accepted a buyout from the Detroit Pistons, giving up $13 million, and has cleared waivers. He has signed with the already star-studded Brooklyn Nets to join good friend DeAndre Jordan, a former Clippers teammate, along with All-Stars Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. However, because Griffin looked like a shell of his former self this season (and last) in Detroit, William Hill Sportsbook did not change any Nets odds to win the Eastern Conference or NBA title. The SportsLine Projection Model actually sees Brooklyn getting slightly worse with Griffin.

Griffin is one of those guys whose game is built on athleticism, and he simply isn't very athletic these days after numerous surgeries/injuries. The former No. 1 overall pick became a superstar because he was such a ferocious dunker (memorably won the 2011 All-Star Slam Dunk Contest) but hasn't dunked in a game since 2019.

He was averaging just 12.2 points on 36.5 percent shooting from the field and 31.5 percent from behind the arc for the Pistons this season. Griffin has never been a particularly good defender. Detroit had a net rating of minus-4.1 with Griffin on the court this year and minus-3.9 without.

The Nets remain +125 favorites to win the Eastern Conference at William Hill and +300 to win the NBA title, although they are now barely behind the Lakers (+260) with L.A. slipping a bit of late sans Anthony Davis. Brooklyn opens the second half at home Thursday in potential playoff preview with Boston, another club that reportedly was interested in Griffin.

The SportsLine Projection Model had forecasted the Nets to win 45.8 games – remember, it's a shortened 72-game regular season, if teams are even able to get every game in – without Griffin and 45.3 with him. Their percentage chance to win the East was 35.3 and the NBA title at 19.2, but those drop to 33.1 and 17.0, respectively with Griffin.

There's a bit of a disclaimer with the model as those numbers are simply based on what Griffin has been this season and last. He easily could be rejuvenated playing with a contender and will clearly not be close to a No. 1 option in Brooklyn. Model creator Stephen Oh notes that the Nets could at worst be as good as they were without him if Griffin cannot turn things around or slightly better because they get a "new" version of Griffin.

Brooklyn reportedly plans to bring Griffin off the bench as a small-ball center.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up almost $8,500 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 12 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 85-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.