This should be a lock as long as they don't have too quick a hook to get the big man off his feet, which has burned me with this prop before. But the Hawks have some size issues and he's over this in 7 straight games in which he's played more than 7 minutes. Foul trouble could always bite and maybe this becomes a second-half blowout but even a half of solid play could have us flirting with this hitting. I expect the Pelicans to be doing plenty of banging in the blocks and Atlanta will hoist up plenty of errant shots.

Atlanta is 5-2 since Young went down but it has come against weak/significantly injured opponents. New Orleans is whole and has been great ATS all season. Atlanta has been terrible ATS. This game plays out accordingly.

No Trae Young, no problem, as the Atlanta Hawks have won three consecutive games and Dejounte Murray is handling lead guard duties in the process. While Murray has certainly stuffed the stat sheet, he gets a really tough matchup against a Pelicans defense that is excellent versus lead guards, plays at a slow pace, and no team is playing better defense over the last few weeks. Look for the Pelicans to stick Herb Jones on Dejounte which is starting to look like the NBA's version of Revis Island.

Zion Williamson is playing very good basketball and the Pelicans are peaking heading into the final month of the regular season. This is a great matchup for Zion as the Hawks are extremely generous to opposing scoring forwards. Look for Zion to have his way with an undersized Atlanta defense/front court.

New Orleans is one of very few teams in the NBA with a top 6 net rating on offense and defense over the past 15 games. They are 6th offensively and 2nd defensively. The Hawks are still scoring without Trae Young but their defense is below average and New Orleans will be a very tough match-up here. Pelicans are 7-3 ATS last 10 on road and 6 of those wins are by 11+. ATL IS 11-21 ats ATS at home, 2-6 ATS as a home dog and 2-5 when the spread is in this range (NO is 9-4). Hawks won the first meeting (Young was a +18) but Pels are more balanced and efficient now and their to dogs are playing well.