If we're getting a version of "playoff Dame" today, we should be good. Last time he was in a neutral court playoff environment he was was putting up 33 PPG in the bubble. Lillard has scored 27+ in 8 of his last 11 games as he certainly begins to warm up from his performances earlier this season. Look for Dame to have a successful 3-point night with IND allowing 39% 3 point shooting.

Buddy Hield came off the bench to start this season. Last season, he averaged 16.8 points over 31 minutes per game as mostly a starter. As a member of the second unit, he only averaged 11.3 points over 23 minutes per game. The Pacers then decided to make him a starter again, a role that he has filled in each of their last seven games. That resulted in him averaging 17.4 points over 29 minutes per game. He scored at least 15 points in four of those games. The Pacers and Bucks both rank inside the top-five in the league in pace of play and bottom-10 in defensive rating. Look for Hield to hit this over in a high-scoring matchup.

Our model never gives Tyrese Haliburton enough credit, and it still likes this over. We aren't projecting 257 points the way to oddsmakers are. So the fact that we still like his over means we really seem him as impactful player here. He's had 49+ in 4 of his past 6 games and 50+ in 4 of last 8. We project him to have 39 minutes, but given backups Nembhard and McConnell only combined for 14 minutes vs Boston, he might play even more.

Guess aren't getting 258. I simply am unable to NOT bet Under an NBA-record-high total. It's almost one I want to lose because it's fun watching these shootouts usually involving the Pacers. I do think playing in a completely new atmosphere in Las Vegas at an unusual time might affect the offenses for a little bit. And if we get just one rather "off" quarter (say 60 total points scored) we should be OK. When they met earlier this month at Indiana, there were 250 points scored. And, frankly, I want a reason to care about such a unique NBA start on a weekday. I will always try to give out picks on standalone games like this.