Giannis Antetokounmpo is as consistent as they come and is on pace to average over 30 PPG for the first time in his storied career. Giannis has eclipsed this line in 15 of his last 21 games, including two games where he played fewer than 10 minutes and was forced to exit due to an injury. Khris Middleton will be inactive as well, which could certainly benefit Giannis. Utah is an ideal opponent because they play up tempo and are not a good defensive team. They also give up the fifth-most points in the paint which bodes well for Giannis who gets the majority of his points at the rim. This game does have some blowout risk but if it gets out of hand, it is likely due to Giannis scoring a lot.

Kelly Olynyk sees a considerable uptick in usage when Lauri Markkanen has been inactive this season. Olynyk is averaging 17.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 5.2 APG without Lauri in the lineup, compared to 11.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 3.2 APG with him active. Kelly also plays an additional 5 mpg. The reason I am opting to go with Olynyk's AR combo line versus others is I feel this line is significantly mispriced. This line should have opened at 12.5 which is a sizable edge as far as my projections are concerned. Milwaukee are a tough opponent but they will be without Khris Middleton. I wouldn't be surprised if either Jrue Holiday or Giannis also get the night off. Either way this is a +EV spot.