My simulations are showing excellent value on both the over and the Suns on the money line, but with the ML -195 the best bet is the Over. Phoenix is winning in 77% of the sims, and the Over is hitting 73% of the time. The model shows the Suns winning by 11 points, with the total right around 230. The Over has hit in four of the Suns’ past five and in four of the past five meetings between the teams in Detroit. The Pistons are at the bottom of the league in scoring defense (120 PPG) and shooting defense (49.3%). The Suns are one of the NBA’s best three-point shooting teams (38.4%).