This is a big game for both teams, a bigger game for Denver but it will be a huge win for the Jazz if they can get it. Utah's defense has been very good the past two games, holding the Nuggets to 105 and 87. The three regular season games all went Under the total in regulation as the game in the bubble was tied 105-105 and went to overtime. The pace has been 1990's-esque with just 86 possessions in Game 2, 91 possessions in Game 3 and 94 possessions in Game 1. With this type of pace and a big game for both teams, my model is projecting just 206 points.

After losing Games 2 and 3 in blowout fashion, the Nuggets are the desperate team heading into Sunday's Game 4, and they'll play like one. Prior to Game 2, Denver had beaten Utah four times this season, including two times in the bubble. This line is an overreaction to the past two games. My model says Denver covers about 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this number.