The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to build on their Game 1 upset by failing to even win one game on their home court. Milwaukee also proved that the Game 1 upset was an aberration and has shown its superiority in three straight dominant performances. Even so, the Bucks are unfamiliar with postseason success. Unless the Celtics already have mentally quit, they should put up a fight with their season on the line.

I expect the Bucks to put the finishing touches on this series tonight, and part of that will be a suffocating defensive effort that should suppress Boston's point total and that means there's value on this Under.

Boston came out in Game 1 and staggered the Bucks with an early body blow, but didn't knock them out. They haven't had an adequate Plan B since, and I don't think this series goes further than tonight.

The Bucks were -8 in Game 1 and lost and then only -7.5 in a Game 2 bounce-back situation at home and won. They then were -1 at Boston in Game 3 and won and -1 in Game 4 at Boston and won. Now we get the highest number of all in Game 5 at Milwaukee. That tells us the Celtics' performance in their last three has decreased their rating dramatically, and the Bucks have also been given a rating boost. I'm with it. It might not be enough of a boost. If the Celtics couldn't step up at home in the last two, why would they now? The Bucks close it out and cover.

Kyrie Irving walked off the court before the final buzzer in Game 4, a symbol of how the Celtics have unraveled. He's shooting 30.6 percent over the past three games, often taking bad shots, and not playing much defense either. The Bucks should get Malcolm Brogdon back tonight. Lay the points as Milwaukee closes it out.

I know the Bucks have looked awfully impressive since losing Game 1 and they will be on their home floor Wednesday, but this is a big line considering the talent that the Celtics have and the fact that they have their backs up against the wall. I do believe the Bucks will win to advance, but I’ll take the points.

Boston has had no answer for a resurgent Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks as a whole the last three games. The Bucks win 66 percent of my simulations, but the numbers also show this is too many points for Kyrie Irving and Co. While odds are good in Milwaukee winning and advancing, Boston covers the spread in well over 50 percent of the sims. Take the points.