Orlando is a mediocre team thanks mostly to its defense. The Magic rank eighth in the NBA in defensive efficiency, which they pair with an offense that ranks 22nd. Perhaps that's why they've been one of the stronger under teams in the league, with the under going 44-33 in their games. The under is an even more impressive 29-18 in Orlando's conference games, as well as 23-15 with the Magic, are on the road. Toronto is a strong over team this season, but it's even better defensively than Orlando is, so I'm not worried about it in this matchup. We're counting on the Magic not to score much here.

The Raptors still have an outside shot at the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but the Magic will be the team playing with a sense of urgency Monday. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games and sit just half a game out of the eighth seed. The Raptors are just 16-23 ATS at home this season, so even though the Magic might not win, I like taking the points based on this line.