Welcome to the 2023 Sports Equinox! It's the only day this year on which the NFL, NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball all have at least one game, with the World Series resuming in Phoenix for Game 3 with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks tied at 1-1. It's three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer for the Rangers against rookie Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks, and the betting splits may surprise. Click here for model picks.
On paper, Scherzer facing a rookie looks like a mismatch. But baseball games aren't played on paper and bettors are fading the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. At BetMGM, Texas is a -110 favorite and taking just 38% of the bets and 35% of the money. On the total of 9 runs, 52% of the bets and 54% of the money are on the Over, which has hit in each of the first two games (10.5 total runs per game). At +1.5 (-185) on the run line, the Diamondbacks are taking just 31% of the bets and 16% of the money.
This is the 11th straight World Series that will not end in a sweep and fourth in a row that has started 1-1. In any best-of-seven series tied at 1-1, the Game 3 winner has won the series 68 of 99 times (69%).
Texas is 8-0 on the road in these playoffs, tied for the longest road win streak to begin a postseason all time. The overall record is nine straight playoff wins, held by a couple of Yankees teams. Texas' .571 (20-15) all-time postseason road record is the highest in MLB history with a minimum of 25 games played.
Adolis Garcia remains the +240 favorite to win World Series MVP even though he was a quiet 0-for-3 in the 9-1 loss in Game 2. That snapped his seven-game hitting streak, his streak of five consecutive games with a home run, and seven consecutive games with an RBI. Garcia's 22 RBI are already an MLB record for a single postseason and are the most ever by a player in their first 14 career playoff games. His eight homers are tied with Nelson Cruz in 2011 for the most by a Texas batter in a single postseason.
Garcia is 0-for-2 with an RBI off Pfaadt, who allowed career worsts of seven earned runs and four homers in his MLB debut vs. Texas on May 3. However, Pfaadt is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts this postseason with 22 strikeouts and just three walks over 16.2 innings of work. He is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 13.5 outs recorded. The rookie is +380 for a win. The Diamondbacks are 18-8 at Chase Field since Aug. 12 and 3-1 this postseason.
Scherzer started his career with Arizona and is 9-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his career vs. his former team. The righty is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in two starts this postseason. Scherzer hasn't thrown more than 63 pitches in either outing and is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 14.5 outs recorded. He's +255 for a win.
Ketel Marte is 1-for-9 off Scherzer and carries an MLB-record 18-game playoff hitting streak into Game 3. He's hitting .471 with a homer and two RBI in four playoff games at home. Marte is -240 for another hit tonight.
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