Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Thursday NLCS Game 3 odds, trends, props: Bettors fading Arizona with rookie Brandon Pfaadt on mound
Arizona hosts Philadelphia in Game 3 of the NLCS this afternoon.
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The Arizona Diamondbacks host their first NLCS game since 2007 and only their second home playoff game this postseason on Thursday afternoon, down 2-0 in the series against the Philadelphia Phillies. It's Ranger Suarez for the visitors against rookie Brandon Pfaadt for the DBacks, and bettors are all over the favored Phillies in their first game outside the Eastern Time Zone in more than a month. Click here for model picks.
At BetMGM, Philadelphia is -125 and taking 76% of the money and 67% of the bets. Those numbers are nearly identical at DraftKings. On the total of 9 runs, there's an Under lean on 67% of the handle and 55% of the bets. The Phillies at -1.5 (+125) on the run line are taking 90% of the handle and 88% of the bets. It's almost like bettors believe today's game is at Citizens Bank Park, where Philadelphia has been destroying NL playoff opponents since last year.
The Phillies outscored the Diamondbacks there 15-3 in the first two games of this series and are 7-1 overall in these playoffs, outscoring opponents 46-13. This will only be the team's third road game -- it split two in Atlanta at the start of the NLDS. Arizona is on a six-game NLCS losing streak dating to its 2007 sweep at the hands of Colorado. This is the Diamondbacks' first NLCS home game since then. Their only home game in these playoffs was a 4-2 win over the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS to complete the sweep.
The lefty Suarez starts on the mound for Philadelphia – which is the +115 favorite to win the World Series. He had a middling regular season but is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA and one save in seven career postseason appearances (five starts). The Phillies have won all seven. Suarez is 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA in two playoff starts this year, both against Atlanta.
He only totaled 8.2 innings in those two, but manager Rob Thomson entered those games prepared to pull Suarez early because the Braves are so right-handed and killed lefties this year. Suarez could have a longer leash against Ariziona. He didn't have a decision in two regular-season starts against the DBacks with a 3.75 ERA. Suarez was ripped at home on May 19 but threw seven shutout innings in the desert on June 14. He is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs and 14.5 outs recorded, and is +245 to record a win – 14.5 outs is of course one shy of qualifying.
"His first two starts, we could get him out a little bit earlier because we had the opportunity with off days built in. It was a little different. We have three in a row here. Hopefully he can give us some length," Thomson said of Suarez today.
The 25-year-old Pfaadt was one of the top 100 prospects in the sport entering this season, but his first taste of the bigs was rocky at best. He was 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and was sent down once. He has had three scoreless outings in his past five, though, including 4.1 innings against the Dodgers in the clinching Game 3 of the NLDS. He has not faced Philadelphia and is set at 1.5 earned runs allowed and just 11.5 outs recorded, so there is no prop on Pfaadt to record a win at DraftKings.
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