Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Tuesday NLCS Game 2 probable pitchers, odds, props, trends: Heavy action on Philadelphia and red-hot Bryce Harper
The Phillies try for a 2-0 lead in the NLCS vs. Arizona.
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The reigning National League champion Philadelphia Phillies have won 10 consecutive home playoff games against NL opponents entering Game 2 of the NLCS on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. Behind Aaron Nola and a scorching-hot Bryce Harper, the Phillies are taking heavy action against the Arizona Diamondbacks for a commanding 2-0 series lead. Teams leading 2-0 in a best-of-seven series all-time have gone on to win the series 84% of the time. Click here for model picks.
The Phillies opened as -150 favorites for Game 2 but are up to -165 thanks to 90% of the money and 56% of the bets coming on the home side. The total opened at 8 but has dropped to 7.5 with 45% of the bets and 61% of the money landing on the Under. On the run line, Arizona at +1.5 (-155) is taking a mere 15% of the bets and 12% of the money.
The Diamondbacks had been 5-0 in these playoffs before Monday's 5-3 loss, which dropped Arizona to 5-12 in its past 17 postseason road games. Harper continued rolling Monday with a first-inning solo homer on his 31st birthday, only the fourth player in MLB postseason history to homer on his birthday. The two-time NL MVP now has 10 career playoff homers, tied for the second-most in Phillies history with Chase Utley. Jayson Werth leads with 11. Harper is now slashing .409/.567/.955 in 30 plate appearances this postseason with four homers, seven RBI, nine runs scored and eight walks.
Harper Over 0.5 homers (+425) was one of the biggest MLB player props wins for bettors at DraftKings on Monday. The prop is the same price on Tuesday and taking huge action again -- as is Harper Over 0.5 walks at -125, with the thinking being that the Diamondbacks might intentionally walk him. Harper has a single in five career at-bats against Arizona starter Merrill Kelly.
Nick Castellanos is 0-for-3 off Kelly. He also homered in Game 1, his fifth home run in his last three games. The only other player in MLB playoff history to hit five home runs over a three-game span within a single postseason was Reggie Jackson, who did it across Games 4-6 of the 1977 World Series with the Yankees. Castellanos is the third Phillies batter in franchise history to homer in three straight playoff games. No one has hit four. Castellanos is +550 to go yard on Tuesday.
Kelly was 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA in 30 regular-season starts and faced the Phillies on June 14 at Chase Field, allowing three runs in six innings in a no-decision. Kelly made his playoff debut in the NLDS vs. the Dodgers on Saturday and threw 6.1 shutout innings in the victory.
Nola was 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA during the regular season and pitched in Arizona on June 15, allowing four runs over 6.2 innings in a victory to improve to 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last four starts, which includes his first two starts of this postseason, with both coming at home.
Philadelphia was -185 on the series line before Game 1 and Arizona was +150. Those numbers are now -375 and +300, respectively, with 93% of the money on the Phillies at BetMGM. In eight of the last 10 NLCS, the team that won Game 1 took the series.
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