Carlos Correa free-agency next MLB team odds: Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, Mariners favorites to sign All-Star shortstop

Former Astros All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa is the top free agent on the market.
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How great is it to be writing about non-lockout-related baseball?! With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, a free-agent frenzy like no other will begin today, and the clear big fish on the market remains former Astros All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa. SportsLine offered odds back in December on where he might sign and now has updated numbers.

The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees were essentially co-favorites back in December. According to multiple reports, the Tigers offered Correa a 10-year contract valued at $275 million, but the former AL Rookie of the Year turned it down. Detroit wasn't going higher and instead signed former Cubs and Mets shortstop Javy Baez to a six-year, $140 million contract. Thus, the Tigers are now out of the Correa sweepstakes.

The Yankees move to the favored role as they have a gaping hole at shortstop now that Gleyber Torres is a full-time second baseman. The Yanks not only checked in on Correa before the lockout but requested and received medical reports on him. Injuries are really the only concern with Correa, and some clubs have concerns about his lower back. Last season with Houston, Correa played 148 games, his most since 2016, and had 26 homers and 92 RBIs with a 7.2 bWAR that led AL position players. He also won the Platinum Glove award as the AL's best defensive player.

Correa reportedly wants to match if not exceed the 10-year, $325 million deal that former Dodgers shortstop signed with the Texas Rangers. That obviously took the Rangers out of the Correa market but might have put the Dodgers in it. One can never rule out big-spending L.A.

The Seattle Mariners have the longest playoff drought in the majors and are ready to spend to end that. Correa would not only be a massive upgrade on JP Crawford but keeping him in the AL West only hurts Houston and Oakland. There is talk that Seattle might prefer Kris Bryant.

Philadelphia would like to upgrade on Didi Gregorius at short but already is paying huge money to two position players, outfielder Bryce Harper and catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phils need pitching more. Ditto the Cardinals. The Twins have a hole at short but they aren't spending $325 million.

The Cubs were supposed to be rebuilding but signed pitcher Marcus Stroman and may choose to reload immediately with Correa. The North Siders have the payroll flexibility because Stroman is the team's only player under contract beyond 2023. MLB Network's Jon Morosi is reporting the Cubs are among the favorites for Correa and engaged in negotiations before the lockout began.

Toronto can afford Correa and lost All-Star Marcus Semien this offseason but has Bo Bichette at short. The Red Sox could get involved because Xander Bogaerts can opt out after the 2022 season. It's not impossible that Correa returns to Houston, either. Atlanta reportedly also checked in on Correa, but wouldn't the champion Braves be better of bringing back leader Freddie Freeman? 

One of these teams listed below could opt to sign a cheaper All-Star shortstop alternative in Trevor Story.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will sign Carlos Correa?

  • Yankees +250
  • Cubs +300
  • Phillies +500
  • Mariners +600
  • Blue Jays +700
  • Dodgers +900
  • Cardinals +1000
  • Braves +1200
  • Astros +1500
  • Twins +2000

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