Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds, trends: Bettors heavily leaning Philadelphia to beat Spencer Strider, end series
The Phillies can advance to a second straight NLCS by beating the Braves.
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There are only five teams left standing in the 2023 MLB playoffs and there still hasn't been a winner-take-all game played. That will continue to be the case if the Phillies beat the visiting Braves on Thursday night in Game 4 of the NLDS to advance and face the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS. However, Atlanta is a -155 consensus SportsLine favorite behind its ace, NL Cy Young contender Spencer Strider. Click here for model picks.
This series looks oddly familiar to the 2022 NLDS, which featured these two teams. The Braves also had home-field advantage last year. The Phillies won Game 1 in Atlanta, lost Game 2, routed the Braves in Game 3 in Philadelphia and then closed it out at home in Game 4. The first three games have followed suit.
Most bettors at BetMGM expect this year's NLDS to end on Thursday, with only 24% of the bets and 41% of the money on the Atlanta money line. At +1.5 (-135) on the run line, the Phillies are taking 63% of the bets and 70% of the money. That's the play I took. On the total of 8.5 runs, 69% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the Under.
If the Braves do lose, it would mean none of the three teams to win 100 games during the regular season made it to the Championship Series round with the Orioles and the Dodgers both swept in their respective Division Series. Atlanta has lost four straight elimination games, with its last win coming in Game 3 of the 2018 NLDS vs. the Dodgers. The Braves have also lost three straight road playoff games overall and have been outscored a combined 27-6. They were an NL-best 52-29 on the road in the regular season.
Strider likely won't win the NL Cy Young, but could finish as high as second after leading the majors with 20 wins and a franchise-record 281 strikeouts. He was terrific in Game 1, allowing just one earned run and five hits over seven innings but took a hard-luck loss with Atlanta shut out. Strider is 7-2 with a 2.67 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Phillies, including the playoffs. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer seven of those nine outings.
DraftKings hasn't released its most popular props for Game 4 yet, but it's highly likely that Bryce Harper homering will be one of them after he hit two dingers in Game 3. Harper now has 10 career homers in the NLDS, the most in MLB history. He is 5-for-18 with two homers in the regular season off Strider.
Lefty Ranger Suarez may be serving as a glorified opener for the Phillies. Atlanta was No. 1 in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws during the season. Suarez didn't allow a run over 3.2 innings of work in Game 1. Because there was an off day between Games 1 and 2, Philly manager Rob Thomson quickly turned to his bullpen at the first sign of trouble, and that should be the case tonight as Game 5 of the NLDS wouldn't be until Saturday back in Atlanta.
Suarez is 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Braves, including the playoffs. He allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of those games. He is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in four career postseason starts but didn't pitch long enough in Game 1 to qualify for a win. Suarez is set at a scant over/under of 11.5 outs tonight and you can't even bet him to get the win. Strider, by comparison, is set at O/U 17.5 outs and is +125 for a win.
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