Astros vs. Twins ALDS Game 4 Wednesday MLB probable pitchers, odds, trends: Bettors on Houston to advance, Yordan Alvarez to stay hot at plate

The Houston Astros can advance to an unprecedented seventh straight AL Championship Series – opposite rival Texas – with a win on Wednesday in Game 4 of the ALDS in Minnesota. The Twins are -125 favorites on the SportsLine consensus to force a Game 5 on Friday, but the action is lopsided against them. The most-wagered MLB player prop of all three games Wednesday is on Astros All-Star Yordan Alvarez. Click here for the model's Wednesday MLB parlay picks.

At BetMGM, just 20% of the bets and 21% of the money are on the Twins money line – those are incredibly low numbers for a favorite. (It's essentially the same at DraftKings.) The total has dropped from 8.5 to 8 runs despite 75% of the bets and 79% of the money coming in on the Over. At +1.5 (-190) on the run line, the Astros are taking 62% of the bets and 85% of the money.

Houston would undoubtedly like to end things on Wednesday to save ace Justin Verlander for Game 1 of the ALCS against the Rangers, which starts Sunday regardless of whether this series lasts for five games. Following a 9-1 rout in Game 2, the Astros are now 6-1 on the road in the playoffs since last postseason with a team ERA of 1.77 and a 0.87 WHIP.

Game 4 would generally be rookie JP France's spot in the rotation, but he noticeably faded down the stretch. Jose Urquidy will get the ball instead. He was 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in 16 outings (10 starts) during the regular season and shut out the Diamondbacks over six innings on Sept. 29 in his most recent outing.

Urquidy, who missed about three months this season with a right shoulder injury, faced the Twins once this year and took a no-decision in April, allowing a run over 5.1 innings. Urquidy does have extensive postseason experience with three World Series wins under his belt and a 3.72 ERA in 36.1 career playoff innings.

The Twins have now scored two or fewer runs in nine of their last 11 home playoff games and have scored three or fewer runs in seven straight. Minnesota is trying to win back-to-back postseason series for the first since 1991, when it won its last World Series.

Right-hander Joe Ryan gets the call on the hill. He was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA during the regular season. Ryan pitched to a 2.98 ERA through his first 15 starts before a groin injury badly changed his trajectory. Ryan was 7-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 14 home starts this season but 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two outings vs. Houston. This will be his first career playoff appearance.

Houston's Alvarez is 2-for-7 off Ryan with a homer and four RBI. He has been spectacular in this series, going 6-for-12 with four homers and six RBI. He's the sixth player ever to hit at least four bombs in a Divisional Round series, the most recent being Giancarlo Stanton in 2020. Alvarez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-145) is the most popular player prop tonight, and No. 2 is Alvarez Over 0.5 walks (-105) – the Twins may intentionally walk him at this point. 

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