If you ever wonder why I play +1.5 frequently -- granted at inflated prices -- last night's Braves game was why. Thought an outright win was in the bag for a while there, but it took a meaningless bottom of the seventh run for us to cash and stop me from breaking a lot of stuff, probably my hand included. Not sure if excellent Rangers closer Jacob Latz is available after throwing 1.1 innings last night but hopefully that isn't even relevant. Starter Nate Eovaldi has given up at least three runs in eight of his past nine. Counterpart Grant Holmes has allowed one earned over 14 innings in his past three. Our model has the ATL winning kinda comfortably. That would be swell.

I feel like the wrong team is favored here. No Ronald Acuna of course, but over the last two weeks, the Braves are crushing at home (.946 OPS) and hitting right-handers well (.846). The Rangers’ road OPS split is 300 points lower. Nathan Eovaldi is actually a worse day game pitcher and he’s given up three-plus runs in eight of his nine starts. Braves starter Grant Holmes has a 2.97 ERA in that span, so we’ll look past the hair.