This is a hefty K Prop line for Jesus Luzardo even in what would be considered a plus matchup. While the Reds strikeout a lot, they’ve been much stingier against opposing southpaws where they possess a 23% K Rate, good for the 13th mark in the majors. I would also argue that Luzardo is running above expectations and this shapes up as a good spot to fade the veteran hurler.

I remember when Brady Singer was thought of to be a strong prospect in Kansas City. He was going to make a name for himself, but he's fallen into the deep depths of a 5.03 ERA. The Reds have lost 10 of his last 11 starts. At the same time, the Phillies have won the last eight starts by Jesus Luzardo. He's allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. The Phillies have also gone over in five of his last six starts despite him being so dominant. The Phillies like to hit when he's on the mound. Phillies to win.

DraftKings. Brady Singer is under this line in 12/17 starts this season, including 6/8 at home. He’s actually pitched worse than his 5.03 ERA would indicate, as his xERA is 5.56, and he’s allowed an xBA of .270 as well (15th percentile). He’ll face the Phillies who’ve been hot at the plate, with an .817 OPS and 120 wRC+ against righties over the last month.