I'd go a full unit at -1 but will go a half at -160. It's the end of a trip and a getaway game for the Rockies. Also the end of a homestand for the Reds, who won't want to lose a series to a bad Colorado team heading out on a tough trip. Cincy lefty Andrew Abbott had been largely terrific his first three seasons but brutal so far in 2026 at 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA. I'm expected a course correction very soon. Colorado is 1-3 vs. southpaws this year. And still much prefer Abbott over Rox journeyman Michael Lorenzen (5.97 ERA) -- a one-time Red.

Andrew Abbott is 0-2 this year with a 6.59 ERA, but the Reds have won three of his last four starts because they simply outscore their opponents. Abbott has gone over the total in his last five starts, and most of it is attributed to Abbott. In his first start against Boston, he pitched six innings and allowed no runs, and it looked like he was continuing his fantastic 2025, but it turned for the worse as he's allowed 22 runs in his last five starts. Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed 21 runs between his last five starts. Over is the play with a slight lean to the Rockies.