Hadn't planned to play this, but the Brewers are down two key lineup guys in Brice Turang and Christian Yelich -- the leadoff guy and No. 3/4 hitter. And of course two other regulars are on the IL. So this feels like a bit of a better-get game for desperate Boston behind ace Garrett Crochet all things considered. Aces are supposed to fix things. Normally I'd love this, but the Brew Crew start the equally nasty Jacob Misiorowski. Total is too low to play. Half-unit.

At first glance, this is a super fishy line. The Red Sox are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home with Garrett Crochet on the bump. Boston is also in desperate need of a win but face one of the hottest teams to start the season in the Brewers. Milwaukee is hitting .271 to start the year as compared to the Red Sox .231. Jacob Misiorowski has only allowed six hits through two starts and has a favorable matchup against sub-par Boston team in early April.

FanDuel / Caesar’s. As great as Garrett Crochet is, I can’t see him going more than six innings tonight. For one, the Brewers will make him work: they see the second most pitches per plate appearance and have the sixth lowest chase rate as a team. The kicker tonight: it’s going to be freezing, roughly 40 degrees at first pitch. Last season, Alex Cora pulled Crochet in the middle of the sixth inning at 85 pitches when the weather dropped to the 40s… and that was on May 21st. Different circumstances, of course, but I just don’t see them pushing their ace in far from ideal conditions tonight.