Will simply take our Reds money and play this at a good price. It could be Houston's last home game of the season depending on how the playoffs shake out -- if the Stros get there -- and we always like teams in home finales. The Astros are pretty desperate having fallen two behind Seattle in the AL West and to a half-game lead for the final WC spot over Cleveland. I'm a fan of M's pitcher Logan Gilbert, but he's 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA away. Closer Andres Munoz (37 saves, 1.49 ERA) and setup man Eduard Bazardo (5-0, 2.34) are not available having pitched the past three games. Houston has won the past nine times Jason Alexander has taken the mound.

Eugenio Suarez is extremely streaky. After a stretch in which he went 0-for-28 at the plate, he now has 7 hits and 3 HRs over his last 4 games played. DraftKings has a bit of an outlier line here, as all other major books have Suarez below +400. Astros' SP Jason Alexander has an .897 OPS against him in 8 home starts with 8 home runs allowed, compared to a .599 OPS and 4 HRs allowed in 8 road starts. We set Suarez's line at +420 to homer.