Luis Severino has pitched his best baseball on the road this season, 5–2 SU with a 3.11 ERA. The Pirates have played their best baseball at home, six games above .500, but have lost five of their last six games that Mitch Keller has started. Over the last two months, the A’s are top 5 in the league in hitting and OPS when facing righties on the road. Pittsburgh is also averaging less than three runs per game in September.

Nick Kurtz could have some extra motivation playing in his home state of Pennsylvania. He's posted a 1.167 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Left-handed batters have a solid .762 OPS against Mitch Keller, along with 10 HRs. We set Kurtz's line at +280 to homer.

If the season lasted another month, the A's might make a playoff run. Their wretched 1-20 stretch in May/June scuttled any postseason plans. Take that away, however, and the A's are in the playoff frame. They continue to battle, have raced past the Angels and out of the AL West basement, and enter PNC Park having won another series, this one in Boston. The A's have also won in in five of Luis Severino's last seven starts. Meanwhile it's been all downhill the past two weeks for the Bucs, who've lost 11 of 12, and Paul Skenes isn't pitching tonight, either (rather, it's Mitch Keller, in whose last three starts the Bucs have lost). Play A's on the Run Line.