When Jo Adell makes contact, he hits the ball incredibly hard. Over his last 13 games, he has 7 hitless games, but in each of the 6 games where he recorded a hit, he hit a home run. Adell has 2 career plate appearances vs. Quinn Priester, and what's encouraging is that he put the ball in play both times and is 1-for-2 with a single. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Priester is slightly worse against right-handed bats than left-handed bats. We set the line at +390 for Adell to homer.

Maybe I haven't learned my lesson betting -1.5 spreads of late but at this price I'm once again sucked in... -1 is available near -135 if you want the push protection, I like that too. The Brewers have scored 18 runs on 19 hits the past couple nights against Angels pitching and the offense looks back rolling. They've won 18 straight starts behind Quinn Priester and Yusei Kikuchi has a worse than five ERA on the road. The Angels' southpaw has an expected ERA at 4.60, while Priester has been brilliant in nearly 150 innings with his new team, pitching to a 3.25 ERA (3.76 xERA). The Brewers bullpen is rested and they've amassed a top-5 OPS in the 2nd half against lefties.

I wouldn't be shocked if the price for under 15.5 outs gets to where the price of under 16.5 is right now on DK, so I'll take the extra out here. The Brewers look like they are back to rolling in their last two wins against the Angels, scoring 18 runs on 19 hits the past couple nights. They've won 18 straight starts behind Quinn Priester and Yusei Kikuchi has a worse than five ERA on the road. In the 2nd half of the year, Milwaukee is top-5 in OPS against lefties, with one of the lowest strikeout rates and one of the highest walk rates. They tend to see a lot of pitches to extend at bats and they should get to Kikuchi.

It really is too bad for the Halos that MLB seasons don't stop on August 31; they're 19-49 in September since 2023. Now, it's happening again, as six straight losses suggest. And these are losses of the blowout variety, outscored 29-6 in the last three defeats. As for Yusei Kikuchi, he has the occasional good effort, like when allowing just one run across 6 IP last Friday at Seattle, though the Angels still lost 2-1; his ERA was 13.88 across his previous three starts. As for the Brewers, all they have done is outscore the Angels 20-4 across the past two nights, and they've won the last 18 times Thursday starter Quinn Priester has taken the mound. Play Brewers on the Run Line.