Played -162 on BetRivers and I really think this should be at 15.5 outs at least. Tong went five innings last time despite multiple errors in the 5th inning that made him throw a bunch of extra pitches. He's consistently handled a starter's workload in terms of pitches and usually being at 14.5 there's a major reason why but I don't see it here. Yes pitching in Cincy isn't easy but this lineup has also been slightly below average in the 2nd against righties, and playing at home hasn't helped any. If he's in the majors, the Mets will ask him for a full workload, so this should really be 15.5 at worst imo.