Kyle Schwarber has cooled off since his 4-HR game last week, with just 2 hits in his last 5 games, so we're buying low here. He's 3-13 in his career against Freddy Peralta, but 2 of those hits were home runs and the other was a double. We set Schwarber's line at +220 to homer.

Such a short price...the way Freddy Peralta is pitching? All Peralta did in August was imitate Don Drysdale circa 1968, as he hasn't allowed a run in his last four starts covering 23 IP (as a reminder, that an 0.00 ERA). For the entire month, just one run allowed across five starts as he is building a pretty persuasive NL Cy Young case. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has hung in there okay of late for the Phils, too, though he had a few high-wire acts in August, such as surrendering 10 hits and a walk in just 5 IP last Friday vs. the Braves, but escaping relatively unscathed (just one run) in an eventual 2-1 Phils win. Risky! Play Brewers on Money Line

Freddy Peralta just had the best month of his career, and he was named MLB's American League pitcher of the month for August. He only allowed one run in his four starts, with the Brewers winning three of them. He's also been good against the Phillies with wins in 2024 and 2023, allowing only one run each. The opposing pitcher, Ranger Suarez, has lost to the Brewers each of the last two seasons. The Brewers have the best record in baseball, and Freddy Peralta is a big reason why. Brewers to win.