Tampa Bay has won six straight while the Guardians have lost three of their last four. Cleveland has struggled offensively, hitting .232 over their last seven days. Ryan Pepiot owns a 3.25 home ERA and held his last two opponents scoreless in 10 combined innings and has a favorable matchup against this Guardians lineup. Despite their recent outputs, Tampa Bay is only hitting .228 against lefties on home over the last month. Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two have gone under the total, with one push involved as well.

Kyle Manzardo is facing the organization that traded him to Cleveland, which always adds a bit of extra motivation. He's hit 9 HRs in 38 games during the second half of the season. Notably, Manzardo has a 1.007 OPS in wins compared to just .520 in losses—so a parlay with the Guardians to win could be worth considering. We set Manzardo's line at +385 to homer.

The hottest team in the AL? Try Tampa Bay, back above .500 after winning six straight and nine of eleven, with three sweeps in the past four series (Cards-Nats-Mariners). The offense has come alive at Steinbrenner Field, outscoring Seattle 25-11 in the just-completed sweep that has moved the Rays within 2.5 games of the last AL wild card. Ryan Pepiot has been good for a solid five innings in recent starts, too, especially the last two, allowing just one hit in each vs. St Louis and Washington. Meanwhile, Logan Allen having his troubles lately on the mound for the Guardians, allowing 13 runs across his last 11 IP the past two starts, surrendering four homers in the process. Play Rays on the Run Line.