This has come down to a reasonable ML, although I still much prefer -1. Just feels like an urgency spot for the Phillies after being dominated three games to start this week at the Mets. The NL East lead is down to 4. Obviously it's baseball and anything can happen, but I certainly don't think the Phils will sleepwalk through this in the wake of that and returning home. A decent amount of Philly guys have good splits off Atlanta starter Cal Quantrill, led by Trea Turner (1.636 OPS) and Harrison Bader (5-for-7, three HR, 2B). I may have to go look Bader Over 1.5 total bases now.

The way the Braves have swung their bats lately, we don't mind giving them a ride in an expected slugfest. Winners in 13 of 18 in the best stretch of the season, Atlanta enters scoring 23 runs across the past two days against the Marlins. That's five times in fourteen games scoring double-digit runs, and Brian Snitker will probably get starter Cal Quantrill out of the game before the Phils inflict heavy damage. Whether Philly is capable of as much remains to be seen after getting hammered by the Mets, who spun a 6-0 shutout behind rookie Nolan McLean on Wednesday. Aaron Nola and his 6.52 ERA don't inspire much confidence for the Phils. Play Braves on the Money Line.

Nervous time perhaps here for the Phils and especially the recently-activated Aaron Nola, who hasn't been sharp when on the mound almost this entire season, but now counted upon to provide some stability with Zack Wheeler done for the season. The Phils have won in Nola's two starts since his recent activation, but that was more because of the offense, which has scored 17 runs across those two, than Nola, with an 8.64 ERA in those games. Atlanta's recently-added Cal Quantrill hasn't fared much better in his recent trips to the mound, indeed with a 9.72 ERA in four starts this month (three with Marlins, one with Braves). The bullpens figure to be busy tonight at CBP. Play Braves-Phillies Over.

I'm still not trusting Aaron Nola. He was brutal in his first start coming off the injured list and adequate last time, but not enough to shake any concerns. Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Braves with his 5.51 ERA and that's 9.72 in August. The Phillies' offense is great and the Braves still have plenty of pop. Neither bullpen is reliable, either.