Hunter Goodman is facing Framber Valdez, who doesn't give up many HRs, but this +600 price is a solid value play according to our model. Valdez hasn't been at his best lately, allowing 3 or more earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. While he's only given up 9 HRs this season, 8 of those have come against right-handed bats. Goodman has a strong .856 OPS against left-handed pitchers and has actually shown more power on the road, with 16 of his 26 HRs coming away from Coors Field. We set Goodman's line at +420 to homer.

Colorado pulled off a stunner Tuesday night against the Astros and Cy Young contender Hunter Brown. Hard to imagine the Rox now roughing up Houston's other ace tonight -- even if the Astros have lost five straight Framber Valdez outings. Most of that damage was away, and he has a 1.85 ERA at home. Colorado's Chase Dollander (2-10, 6.91 ERA), well, I'm sure he's a nice person. The Astros hammered him in Denver on July 1.