Riley Greene has excellent potential to exceed 1.5 total bases due to his impressive power metrics, strong recent performance, and success against Oakland, where he has a .353 career batting average. As a hitter near the top of the order, Greene is expected to have 4 to 5 plate appearances on the road. With a 30.6% home run rate on fly balls and facing an A's bullpen that has allowed the fifth-most hits this season, he needs one solid swing to succeed with this prop. Sutter Health Park ranks second in runs, third in hits, third in doubles, and eighth in home runs at Baseball Savant, making it a favorable environment for hitters.

It goes without saying that Detroit's Tarik Skubal is terrific, but heck yeah I'll take +2.5 on the Athletics in Skubal's first-ever start in Sacramento. These aren't the Rockies. I highly doubt as good the 2024 Cy Young winner is that he blanks the A's in that minor-league hitter-friendly park. And the A's hit him around a bit in Detroit on June 24 (6 IP, 4 ER). If they score at least four tonight, I believe we cash. Might only take three.

A's starter J.T. Ginn has a 6.75 ERA at home and has allowed a .339 average with a .633 slugging against lefties this season. Riley Greene, a lefty, has five homers in his last 14 games. I love this spot here in Sutter Health Park, where the ball flies at night.

The Tigers are back to being awesome, having won nine of their last 11 games. The best pitcher in the world, Tarik Skubal, gets the ball here. A's starter J.T. Ginn gets shelled at home (6.75 ERA in 28 innings) and the Tigers feast on righties. This shouldn't be close.