George Kirby has quietly been incredible against lefties over the last month, bumping his swinging strike rate above 15% and recording a strikeout rate north of 30%. He’s not been a big swing and miss guy in past years so the swinging strike rate is noteworthy. I find it interesting that he’s ditched the splitter to lefties, in favor of more sliders and curveballs, which are pitches that could do damage against any lineup thanks to their higher whiff rates. Favored to cover six innings, and opposing six lefties, I'm backing Kirby to get a 6th strikeout. I'm seeing upside thanks to the three generally-tough lefties atop the Mets order having trouble with strikeouts of late, so I started a ladder here at 6,7,8 Ks.

I wanted to play the under 15.5 outs here and MGM gave us -165 at open but that tanked quickly to worse than -200. Now at 14.5 and for +150 odds, I think it's worth a 0.5u swing to try fading Holmes still. The Mets definitely want to get at least five innings from him so the motivation is against us which makes this risky and the reason 15.5 is preferable, but this is an enticing spot for Holmes to not get deep into the game. Seattle's lineup has yet to be announced but on the year they're near the top of MLB for pitches seen per plate appearance and with Holmes on "normal" rest of four days, I'm willing to take a shot here.