Jesus Luzardo of the Philadelphia Phillies will face a Washington Nationals team he is very familiar with from spending the prior four seasons with the Marlins. In fact, Luzardo had a season high eleven strikeouts against the Nationals earlier this season. His inexplainable home and road splits have been the most eye opening in baseball since July 1st. He has been hit hard in four home starts, but three road starts has allowed just one run in twenty innings of work. Take his strikeouts over.

While Kyle Schwarber's line doesn't offer huge value at +230, our model still sees positive expected return. He hasn't homered in his last two games, and the last two times that happened, he went deep in the third. Since June 19th, he hasn't gone more than three games without a homer. Schwarber has 17 HRs in his last 35 games and 26 of his 42 HRs against RHPs. Nationals' SP Brad Lord has been solid but less dominant as a starter, and left-handed batters have a .736 OPS against him. We set Schwarber's line at +215 to homer.

The Phillies just got crushed by the Reds in two straight games, so they'll be happy to see the hapless Nationals on the other side for this one. The offense shouldn't have many issues with righty Brad Lord while Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has been mostly great this season with a handful of duds ruining his stats. It's unlikely the Nats contribute to another dud here.