Bet365 at -155. Clay Holmes has failed to clear this line in eight of his last ten games (and the two overs were by the hook). The converted reliever is noticeably struggling with his pitch efficiency over this recent stretch with his pitches per plate appearance (+7%) and walk rate (+3%) trending in the wrong direction. With a fresh bullpen, I don’t see the Mets pushing Holmes, who has already exceeded his previous three seasons’ workload by at least 45 IP. And today, he’ll face a patient Braves lineup who collectively see the most pitches per plate appearance. It’s a juicy one, but I’m comfortable with this one up to -175.