As the Mariners aren't having trouble scoring runs in this series (eight in each of the first two games), the RL price doesn't spook us too much this afternoon at T-Mobile Park. Indeed, that "magic 8" has hindered the White Sox, allowing that many in each of their last three games, all losses, and too many shaky efforts lately by Pale Hose starter Shane Smith (who had a 9.75 ERA in July) to expect otherwise this afternoon. Logan Gilbert, with a 2.27 ERA at home for Seattle this season, should be able to hand his bullpen a lead in the sixth or seventh inning. Play Mariners on the Run Line.

While Cal Raleigh's line doesn't offer huge value, our model still sees positive expected return. He hasn't homered in his last five games, which feels like a drought given his torrid HR pace this season. Raleigh is 1-for-2 with a double against Shane Smith, who's allowed 6 of his 10 home runs in his last five starts after giving up just 4 in his first 14. Eight of Smith's 10 HRs allowed have come against left-handed hitters, and Raleigh has 26 HRs batting from the left side. We set his line at +216 to homer.

We are 2-0 on Mariners pitchers to get the win vs. the White Sox this week ... no reason to stop. It's a tricky spot anyways for a bad team at the end of a long trip and a getaway game. Obviously, Seattle can't let up chasing a playoff spot/division title. I will say Logan Gilbert hasn't been great of late, but this is probably the weakest lineup he has seen in 2025, and Gilbert does have a 2.27 home ERA. Don't think the All-Star Game is a joke in terms of at least one player from each team? The White Sox's Shane Smith (3-7, 4.25) made it even though he's in the midst of six straight starts failing to go even five innings.