Johan Ovideo makes his first start since September 2023. Justin Verlander has struggled mightily this season with one win on the season and a 4.93 road ERA. Pittsburgh has been playing well recently, going 9-3 SU in their last 12 games. They’re also six games above .500 at home which is pretty good despite their overall record. San Francisco only has two wins in their last nine games while hitting .234 over their last seven days as compared to the Pirates .282.

Matt Chapman is in a bit of a slump after finishing July on a tear, but the model likes his matchup today against Johan Oviedo, who's making his season debut. It's been nearly two years since Oviedo's last start. Chapman has an .820 OPS in games where the opposing starter is a right-handed pitcher, compared to just .689 against lefties. We set Chapman's line at +460 to homer.