Jacob deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the American League, and the Rangers are one of the best under teams in baseball, but when deGrom pitches, the games go over. At least that's the case in his last five starts and seven of his last eight starts. He's also had losses in three of his last four starts. The Mariners are one of the best over teams in baseball, going over 58 times this season. The Rangers have gone over seven of their last nine games, marking a significant shift from their performance for most of the season. Good pitching, but the over gets there.

Saturday, Texas got a rare win in Seattle in extra innings. Both teams maximized their bullpen giving the Rangers the upper hand Sunday with the veteran Jacob Degrom on the mound. As great as Degrom’s numbers are he gave up seven home runs in the month of July, after none in the month of June. There could be an impact on Degrom, in his first full year back since 2019. Grab the home underdog here with the Mariners, who get a big inning against Degrom to sway the game.

FanDuel. I like this spot for Jacob deGrom, who has cleared this line in nine of his last 14 starts, including seven of his last eight on the road. He’ll get the Mariners, who are at a 25.7% K% over the last month against righties (and a whopping 29.7% at home). While deGrom did come up short on this line in two early season matchups against the Mariners, Seattle had a much different approach at the plate. Over the last month, the Mariners have the fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate.