Wind blowing in should help keep the ball in the yard and the total on this game has been dropping down to seven so I like our chances needing a 5th run in the first five innings here to beat us. Trevor Rogers allowed just three earned runs across four starts in July and Cade Horton allowed just four runs in four starts during that time.

FanDuel at +100. Cade Horton has pitched to a 1.52 ERA in his four July starts. And overall, the rookie hurler has a 2.12 ERA at Wrigley. He’ll face the Orioles, fresh off selling off three key members of their lineup. The Orioles have stark home/road splits as well, with only a .635 OPS against righties on the road in July. With the wind blowing in today, and the Orioles officially waving the white flag on their season, I see this is a sneaky spot for Horton to succeed.

The Cubs have won six of the last seven meetings with the Orioles, and they send Cade Horton to the mound, who hasn't allowed any runs in three of his last four starts. But the reason the price is so low is that five starts ago, he allowed seven runs. Baltimore comes one-game off a five-game winning streak, where they almost swept Toronto in a four-game series, while the Cubs avoided getting swept at Milwaukee by winning on Wednesday, 10-3. The Cubs have only won four of their last 10 games, another reason why this price is so low. Trevor Rogers comes off an 18-0 win over the Rockies. The key here is that the wind is blowing in at 12 mph. Cubs win.