The Padres started 27-15 but now they're only eight games above .500, and they begin a 10-game road trip, where they've been 18-28 this season. The Padres have won eight of the last nine meetings, including a sweep at Washington last season. The plan was to go against Dylan Cease, but the number has dropped too much for my liking. He's 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA over his past three starts, and he's 3-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year. Match it up with Michael Soroka’s 10.13 ERA in two July starts and a season ERA of 5.35, which should get the Padres' bats going. Washington has gone over 50 times this season. Just the over.

The Nats can't seem to help but play higher-scoring games. Iffy starting pitching, spotty bullpen work, shoddy defense, plus occasional offensive fireworks, and the recipe for overs is undeniable. Washington's season has fallen apart mostly because of those aforementioned factors, but for our purposes the Nats have also become the quintessential "over team" as they've landed that way 14-1 across their last 15 games. No wonder; they don't stop the other team from scoring, and more potential trouble on Friday as starter Michael Soroka hasn't lasted past four innings his last two starts. Washington, however, might do some business vs. San Diego starter Dylan Cease, whose last few efforts have been subpar (as his 7.31 ERA that span would suggest). Play Padres-Nats Over