Riley Greene has 3 career plate appearances against Shane Baz and is 2-2 with a home run, a single, and a walk. He's hit 22 home runs this season—21 of them against right-handed pitchers—while batting .311 with a .991 OPS in those matchups. Baz has allowed 16 home runs in 17 starts this season. While he's actually been better against left-handed hitters, Greene's strong splits and success against Baz make this a worthwhile play. We set Greene's line at +370 to homer.

Rays starter Shane Baz averages 96.8 mph on his fastball and is in one of the best grooves of his career, as he's fanned 20 batters and walked two over his past two starts. He's registered at least six strikeouts in four straight starts, including a poor June 20 home outing against these same Tigers. He lasted just 5.1 innings that night but still got six strikeouts. In his most recent start, against the Athletics, Baz had an elite CSW (called strike plus whiff) rate of 38 percent. As great as the Tigers are, they strike out at the 10th-highest rate in MLB.