The Padres are 27-15 at home while the Diamondbacks have lost nine of their last 11 games. The Padres knocked Zac Gallen around last time they saw him and I expect it to happen again. The Padres have a much better bullpen right now, too.

The Diamondbacks have the 28th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.06 ERA and blowing 17 of their 43 save opportunities. Only the Athletics and Nationals are worse on the season. And they're not hitting right now. Yu Darvish is making his first start of the season, and the last time the Diamondbacks saw him, he was ending Arizona’s 2024 season. Zac Gallen has won three of his last four starts but all four have gone over as he's giving up 18 runs between them. There isn’t a regular starter who has given up as much as Gallen’s 5.45 ERA. Gallen gave up four runs in 6.1 innings in Arizona's 8-7 win on June 14th. Padres to win.