The model likes Junior Caminero when he is at home and when he faces RHPs, and today he checks both of those boxes. Caminero has 16 of his 21 HRs this season against RHPs, and he is hitting .318 with 14 HRs at home. A's starter Mitch Spence doesn't allow many HRs, but he also doesn't go too deep into games. The A's 5.77 bullpen ERA is the second worst in MLB, and their 47 home runs allowed is tied for the worst of any bullpen. Caminero has seen Spence before and is 1-3 with a single. We set the line at +330 for Caminero to homer.

Nick Kurtz doesn't have a hit in the first two games of the series, but we like this spot for him today. He's hitting .272 with a .929 OPS vs. RHPs and is facing RHP Ryan Pepiot, who didn't make it out of the second inning in his last start. Pepiot has allowed 12 HRs in 11 home starts this season, but he does neutralize left-handed batters with a great changeup. If Kurtz can get into a fastball count, then he has a strong opportunity to do damage against Pepiot, but he needs to lay off of Pepiot's changeup — the reason why the line is where it's at. We set the line at +380 for Kurtz to homer.

Ryan Pepiot has pitched well this season but got lit up in his last start where he wasn’t able to make it through 2 IP. While Pepiot has always been talented, I would argue he’s pitching above his head, particularly in the K department where his metrics are pedestrian. I consider Pepiot a strong fade regardless of matchup at 6.5 Ks.

The A's have been a thorn in Tampa Bay's side this week, winning the first two of this midweek set, and handing the Rays a loss for the first time in eight games started by Shane Baz. Now, Tampa Bay is on its first three-game skid in two months, but we suspect it ends here. Look for Ryan Pepiot to recover from a poor effort last Friday in Baltimore and perform like he had in the month or so beforehand when he posted a 1.64 ERA across six starts. Meanwhile, A's starter Mitch Spence has some shaky numbers across his last two starts, including a 5.58 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in losses to the Guardians and Yanks. Play Rays on the Run Line.