Soto is on fire right now, having gone 8 for 20 with five homers in his last six games. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has been worse at home this season (4.58 ERA) and Soto is 4 for 10 with a double in his career against Keller.

Mitch Keller has allowed the most stolen bases (49) of any pitcher since the beginning of 2024, with a success rate of 93% for runners. Francisco Lindor is 3-for-3 in steals off Keller, but he hasn't recorded a stolen base attempt in the last 17 games. Lindor has an on-base percentage of .421 against Keller, which includes five walks in 19 plate appearances. These walks provide excellent opportunities for setting up a potential stolen base. Lindor could expect 4 to 5 plate appearances as the leadoff hitter for a road team. This line has come down slightly, but I still like the value.

After batting just .219 with a .801 OPS in May, Juan Soto is batting .325 with a 1.223 OPS over a large 24-game sample size in June. Soto has 10 homers in those 24 June games, including 5 over his last 6 games. Soto doesn't have a home run against Mitch Keller, but he is 4-10 with 2 walks in his career against him, indicating he sees the ball well when Keller is pitching. We set the line at +380 for Soto to homer.