Bit higher than I'd like, but Detroit is No. 2 in the majors in OPS vs. lefties and 13-4 against them. Cincy southpaw Wade Miley hasn't been very good in either of his two starts this year and also dealing with some off-the-field stuff. End of a six-game trip so a natural bad spot for Cincinnati. The Tigers don't lose many home series (24-10 overall at Comerica Park) and that's on the line today. They will use a bullpen day.

This is a matchup play, as the model likes Spencer Torkelson against Wade Miley. Torkelson has a 1.051 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, while right-handed batters are 9-for-20 (.450) to start the season against Miley. Miley has considerably worse career splits against right-handed batters compared to lefties. Of the 196 home runs he has allowed in his career, 168 have come against right-handed hitters. We set the line at +350 for Torkelson to homer.