Pittsburgh was my only miss in five plays yesterday, so the Bucs owe me. Miami hasn't won back-to-back games since May 24-25. Starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has a 6.75 road ERA. A couple of Marlins regulars (Sanchez, Stowers) are out because the Pirates are starting a lefty in Bailey Falter (3.12 home ERA). The Fish rank 19th in OPS vs. lefties. Pittsburgh had been playing well before the bats went quiet yesterday. All the regulars are in.

The Bucs reminded us last night why we don't trust them as favorites, as the offense stalled again in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins. The 10 runs on Monday night were an outlier, as Pittsburgh was held to just 2 runs for the third time in four games. The 27-41 Pirates now turn to matinee starter Bailey Falter, off one of his worst efforts of the season on the mound, surrendering 4 runs and 5 hits across just 3 2/3 IP last Friday vs. the Phils. Note serviceable efforts in the last four starts made by Miami's Cal Quantrill, who's posted a 2.95 ERA that span. Play Marlins on the Money Line.